We offer a "Moneyball" approach to the NFL Draft 2012; finding draft sleepers for both the professional scout, as well as the dynasty and keeper league players. Our research covers all player positions, including IDP.
*Coming Soon: NFL Draft: 2012 Dynasty Rookie Draft Rankings & Mock Draft Coming
New Rookie Reports:
WR Mock Draft Rankings 1.0 (5/5/2012)
We have statistically evaluated 98 WR-prospects for their talent level and NFL situation. We have a Dynasty Rookie Draft grade on each of the 98 WRs, and have them listed/ranked in order. For our top-20 WRs, we have written a commentary about each individual WR's situation and/or rationale for the grading.
The top-20 includes -- Justin Blackmon, Ryan Broyles, Derek Carrier, Greg Childs, Toney Clemons, Michael Floyd, Chris Givens, Devin Goda, Stephen Hill, T.Y. Hilton, Alshon Jeffery, A.J. Jenkins, Rishard Matthews, Marvin McNutt, Kashif Moore, Dale Moss, Brian Quick, Mohamed Sanu, Jordan White, Kendall Wright. To find out the order, and why Justin Blackmon is not among our top-5 WRs in the 2012 Dynasty Rookie Draft class, click the link below...
Dynasty Rookie Draft 2012: WR Mock Draft List 1.0 (5/5/12)
QB Mock Draft Rankings 1.0 (5-2-12)
We have statistically graded 24 QBs for the 2012 Dynasty Rookie Draft, as well as briefings on the top-10 QB prospects in the 2012 Dynasty Fantasy Football rookie class. How to delineate between Andrew Luck vs. Robert Griffin/RG3? Who are our counter-culture #3 and #4 ranked Dynasty Fantasy Football QBs according to our computer algorithms? Who are the "dead money," big-name Dynasty bust-QBs? All that is answered at...click the link below...
Dynasty Rookie Draft 2012: QB Mock Draft List 1.0 (5/2/12)
DE/DT Jared Crick, Nebraska
As a DE-prospect for the NFL, our computer scouting models had very low grades on Nebraska DE Jared Crick. We have seen Crick listed as a DT for the Texans in some places, and so we re-evaluated Crick as a DT versus as a DE. The result was an unusually high variance in the grade. To see the issues we had when manipulating a profile for Jared Crick as DT, click the link below...
Crick, Jared | NFL Draft 2012 | Statistical Analysis of DE/DT Jared Crick, Nebraska
Dynasty Rookie Draft TE Rankings 1.0 (5/2/12)
We have a write up on each of our top-10 TE-prospects for the 2012 Dynasty Rookie Draft, as well as a statistical ranking of the top-40 rookie TEs with our new "Dynasty Grade" number system. Among the TE names discussed are -- Dwayne Allen, Lamont Bryant, Derek Carrier, Josh Chichester, Michael Egnew, Coby Fleener, Ladarius Green, James Hanna, Adrien Robinson, Taylor Thompson. What order are they in? Which ones are "dead money"? Check it out, click the link below...
Dynasty Rookie Draft 2012: TE Mock Draft List 1.0 (5/1/12)
Fantasy Football: RB Mock Draft 1.0 (4-30-12)
We have statistically graded 57 RBs just drafted or signed as
free agents. We not only rank the RBs, but also have developed a
statistical talent and situational grade to produce an overall
"Dynasty Grade" for each RB. A few of the higher rated mainstream
RBs have had their Dynasty valuations wiped out based on the depth
chart of the team they just landed on, while others benefitted from
a weaker roster of RBs for their new team. We have a smaller write
up on each RB in the top-20, and a rating board for all 57 RBs.
The RBs who have made our 1.0 version of the top-20 (alphabetically)
-- Vick Ballard, Bryce Brown, Raymond Carter, Terrence Ganaway, Dan
Herron, Ronnie Hillman, LaMichael James, Joe Martinek, Doug Martin,
Lamar Miller, Isaiah Pead, Bernard Pierce, Chris Polk, Bobby Rainey,
Chris Rainey, Trent Richardson, Evan Rodriquez, Michael Smith,
Robert Turbin, David Wilson. The question is...what order are they
in? At least, one of our top-10 RBs will not likely be found in a
top-100 list anywhere else. To see who the mystery man is, and to
also read a little of why our computer models actually hates this RB
class comparative to recent history, click the link below...
Dynasty Rookie Draft 2012: RB Mock Draft List 1.0 (4/30/12)
DE/OLB Shea McClellin, Boise State
Shea McClellin is one of those late-risers that has come from an early 3rd-round projection into the 1st-round. Our computer sees that as a stretch. Whether analyzing him as a DE or OLB, the computer does not love the profile. To see why our computer is down a little on Shea McClellin, click the link below...
McClellin, Shea | NFL Draft 2012 | Statistical Analysis of DE Shea McClellin
OLB Sammy Brown, Houston
Sammy Brown led all NCAA players in tackles-for-loss last year, and had the second most sacks of any player (Whitney Mercilus led the way). Boring! Who cares...did he play for LSU or Alabama is all we should care about, right? The mainstream draft media is not talking about him, so he must be no good? After playing only two college seasons, Sammy Brown is tied (with Von Miller) for 13th in the NCAA all-time for career tackles-for-loss. We are not suggesting the simplicity of great college performance is an instant translation to equal NFL success. We would at least like to explore the notion that he should be higher rated/discussed than as a fringe 20-30th best OLB prospect in this draft. There is more to the Sammy Brown prospect story then just great conference USA output. To see why our computer scouting models show Sammy Brown rated as a top-5 OLB prospect in this draft, click the link below...
Brown, Sammy | NFL Draft 2012 | Statistical Analysis of LB Sammy Brown
RB Ryan McCants, Oregon State
Ryan McCants has popped up on our computers "radar screen" due to some sensational physical measurements at his Pro-Day workouts. It's bizarre for a RB like McCants that had 10 carries in the past three college seasons to have Trent Richardson mentioned in the same breath in our report. We are by no means saying McCants is the next Richardson, but there is a (semi) interesting comparison with Richardson and Doug Martin. To see why it may be worth keeping tabs on Ryan McCants, click the link below...
McCants, Ryan | NFL Draft 2012 | Statistical Analysis of RB Ryan McCants, Oregon State
OLB Korey Toomer, Idaho
Some mainstream rating services do not even have Korey Toomer listed as a prospect in this draft at all. We have Toomer rated quite highly. Toomer had one of the most interesting college journeys to relevance of any prospect we have studied in 2012. Korey Toomer is a Von Miller clone physically/athletically. The question is -- "is Toomer as good a prospect as Von Miller"? To see our answer to that question, and to why we have Toomer rated so well, click the link below...
Toomer, Korey | NFL Draft 2012 | Statistical Analysis of LB Korey Toomer, Idaho
WR Devin Goda, Slippery Rock
We have Devin Goda as a potential top-10 WR prospect in this draft, and most rating services do not have Goda in the top 200 WRs for this draft. If that isn't enough reason to read this report, then would a comparison to Larry Fitzgerald or Vincent Jackson interest you? To see why our computer models have lit up on Slippery Rock WR Devin Goda, click the link below...
Goda, Devin | NFL Draft 2012 | Statistical Analysis of WR Devin Goda, Slippery Rock
S Matt Daniels, Duke
2012 NFL Draft Research Report: S Matt Daniels, Duke
Our computers discovered Matt Daniels late in the process, and it
was an amazing discovery. Our computer models are completely smitten
with Matt Daniels, as am I the more we look at it. Daniels may very
well be the top Safety-prospect in this draft, at a minimum he
should be among the top Safeties discussed. He is currently ESPN's
40th ranked Safety in this draft. To see how high our computer rates
Matt Daniels (buckle up), click the link below...
Daniels, Matt | NFL Draft 2012 | Statistical Analysis of S Matt Daniels, Duke
WR Kendall Wright, Baylor - Update (drop)
The news of Kendall Wright's bench press count and body-fat readings from his Pro-Day are a wrecking-ball to his draft status. We never thought Wright should be valued as a 1st-round pick just based on supply and demand of WRs of his ilk. This new information should make a radical change in his draft status. To see how hard a hit Wright has taken, and the WR names whom our computer models now show as historical comparisons, click the link below...
NFL Draft 2012: Statistical Analysis of WR Kendall Wright, Baylor 2.0 (drop)
DE Chandler Jones, Syracuse
Chandler Jones has made a late surge from 2nd-3rd round consensus draft projections, to suddenly in most everyone's 1st-round projections. How did this happen in such sudden unison? To see why our computer models have not been high on Chandler Jones all along in this DE class, click the link below...
Jones, Chandler | NFL Draft 2012 | Statistical Analysis of DE Chandler Jones, Syracuse
WR/RB Curenski Gilleylen, Nebraska
All we can say is...the report on Curenski Gilleylen is the most bizarre prospect finding that we will research in all 2012. A prospect that physically could grade as a top "speed-RB," or "small-WR," or even as a CB-conversion project for this draft. Gilleylen is also a prospect who hasn't recorded a stat in two years of play (not due to injury). To see the out of left-field find of Curenski Gilleylen by our computers, click the link below...
Gilleylen, Curenski | NFL Draft 2012 | Statistical Analysis of WR Curenski Gilleylen, Nebraska
RB Michael Smith, Utah State 2.0
We have confirmed some new data on Michael Smith's pre-draft workout performance/measurements, and our computer is slashing his overall prospect grades from a former top-3 "speed-RB" in this class to just another fast RB. To see what caused the decline, and what Michael Smith's NFL comparables have dropped from-to ... click the link below...
NFL Draft 2012: Statistical Analysis of Michael Smith, Utah State 2.0 (Drop)
TE Lamont Bryant, Morgan State
How to entice you to read about Morgan State TE Lamont Bryant...hmmmm? Perhaps mentioning that our computer scouting analysis shows that Lamont Bryant has several things in common with Calvin Johnson? Could our computer scouting models really be pointing toward Bryant as the next Calvin Johnson? To see what our computer shows on Lamont Bryant, and a comparison of Bryant versus Coby Fleener, click the link below...
Bryant, Lamont | NFL Draft 2012 | Statistical Analysis of TE Lamont Bryant, Morgan State
College Football Metrics is a prospect research and player evaluation group in the model of a "Moneyball" approach. We have developed several algorithms/computer formulas to analyze, model, and grade college prospects looking ahead for their NFL usefulness, and star-potential.
For the past few years, we have been analyzing college and pro players for projected performance for private clients, for their Fantasy Football scouting. This 2011 NFL Draft season we began to make our college prospect theories public, and due to the resounding request for more prospect research we are launching College Football Metrics to be our home for all of our research reports, rankings, and all things NFL Draft.
We look at college performance based on strength of opponent and individual physical measureables, and comparing that to our database of over a decade of college prospects at the same position…and their subsequent NFL performances.
We are not beholden to a mainstream approach; we are an independent research group trying to project player performance in a way you won’t see anywhere else…and often defies all "conventional wisdom" (and is often proven right).