After years of study inside this industry, I would argue that NFL Draft analysis is like a con artist trick. The fans are the eager dupes being targeted.
Fans are desperate for insight, and those paid to deliver such things really have no more idea than most fans. I would argue serious, high-stakes dynasty-fantasy players have way more insight on prospects than analysts do. It’s not even close. What mainstream analysts do at this point is talk out of both sides of their mouth and hope the people don’t notice. The current scouting on Mitch Trubisky is a glaring example of this. The article that kicked off me hitting the computer is linked below…
The Trubisky scouting talking point started with “Trubisky really shows nice ___ quarterbacking skills, but there is concern that he only started for one-year at UNC. His inexperience scares scouts/teams.” What’s being said? Nothing. It’s basically…Trubisky has some real nice attributes, we hear, but he also has some concerns, we hear. Great. Really helpful.
The NFL media is like NFL coaches and NFL GMs…living in fear of making a mistake. Playing not to lose, rather than to win. You wonder why there are never any trades in the NFL…fear of being on the short end. GMs are playing a con as well — playing it safe to stay in the job without being noticed for lack of football scouting insight for as long as possible. Given the number of players in the NFL, you’d think there would be all kinds of trades every year. There are barely any deals outside of New England…and mostly for players the other team was going to cut anyway. The media plays the same ‘living life not to lose’ game by echoing the same narrative over and over with no real, definitive position. So I’m not shocked when the scouting of a top prospect, like Trubisky, is: “He could good, but then again he might not be.”
You are going to hear this skills vs. one-year starer/experience Trubisky narrative parroted by one and all over the next few weeks into the NFL Combine and heading towards the draft. It’s a waste of time. If you’d like a definitive take and historical comparison via computer scouting models, check out our early-January scouting report here — CFM Scouting Report: Mitch Trubisky. He’s a pretty important piece of the NFL Draft puzzle to scout properly.
Story Link: SportsMockery: Mitch Trubisky and the Bears