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Monthly Archives: March 2017

NFL Draft 2017 Scouting Report: CB Tre’Davious White, LSU

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NFL Draft 2017 Scouting Report: CB Gareon Conley, Ohio State

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NFL Draft 2017 Scouting Report: CB Marshon Lattimore, Ohio State

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NFL Draft 2017 Scouting Report: CB Marlon Humphrey, Alabama

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RB Samaje Perine, Oklahoma — 2017 NFL Draft Profile

Twitter @CFBMetrics

 

RB Samaje Perine, Oklahoma  

  • NCAA record 427 yards rushing (and 5 TDs) versus Kansas as a freshman in 2014
  • All Big 12 Academic Team (2015-2016)
  • All-time leading rushed in Oklahoma football history
  • Team Captain

 

 

*CFM Full Scouting Report (link):  CFM Scouting Report — Samaje Perine

  — Samaje Perine gets lost in the 2017 NFL Draft because of the sudden emergence of athletically gifted 230+ pound running backs this year (Fournette, Foreman, etc.). Should supply and demand hurt his value? Is there an argument where you could push Perine as an equal to or better prospect than Fournette? We look at Perine’s career and measurables in our computer scouting models and full scouting report.

 

CBS Sports (as of this publish date) #9 RB prospect, #129 overall

ESPN (as of this publish date) #11 RB prospect, #138 overall

Dynasty Rookie Draft (ADP as of this publish date): #6 RB taken, #13 overall

 

 

The preeminent NFL Draft and Dynasty Rookie Draft scouting service – College Football Metrics.com has launched its sixth year of scouting analytics and detailed reports, rankings and coverage of all things NFL Draft…including the college all-star bowls, the NFL Combine, and the draft itself. Our analysis is like none other, designed to defy and confound the mainstream coverage – who else had David Johnson on par with Todd Gurley in 2015? Or Tyrell Williams as a top WR prospect in 2015? Or Jatavis Brown and Sean Davis as top defensive prospects in 2016? Who else railed against Laquon Treadwell and Jameis Winston from the jump in their draft years? What will we discover with our computer scouting models in 2017?

For a completely different scouting service, visit collegefootballmetrics.com. Originally designed for NFL personnel departments, it has become home to the high stakes dynasty and fantasy profiteers – come see why that one person in your league always finds all those players ahead of everyone else…or become that person.

 

 

Measurables:

Info Hght Wght Hand ArmL 40-D 10-D Bench Vert. Broad ShSht 3-Cone
 Combine 5’10.5″  233  10.0″  30.4″  4.65  n/a 30  33.0″ 9’8″ 4.37 7.26
 Pro Day  x  x  x  x  x  x  x  x  x  x  x

 

 

College Statistics:

Year Games RushAtt RushYds RushTD YdPCarr Recept. RecYds RecTD
2014 13 263 1,713 21 6.5 15 108 0
2015 13 226 1,349 16 6.0 15 107 1
2016 10 196 1,060 12 5.4 10 106 1
TOTAL 36 685 4,122 49 6.0 40 321 2
Avg per gm last 2yrs X 18.3 104.7 1.21 5.8 1.0 9.3 0.08

 

 

Link to College Profile: Website Bio — Samaje Perine

Link to background storySoonerSports bio article on Samaje Perine

 

 *See more of our football analysis at Fantasy Football Metrics.com

 

 Perine Highlights…

 

 Perine’s NCAA Record 427 rushing yards vs. Kansas

 

 

You have to watch this, if you have a soul (but start at 1:00 mark to not start out on a corny note)…

 

 

 

 

NFL Draft 2017 Scouting Report: RB Samaje Perine, Oklahoma

 

NFL Draft 2017 Scouting Report: RB Samaje Perine, Oklahoma

*Our RB grades can and will change as more information comes in from Pro Day workouts, leaked Wonderlic test results, etc. We will update ratings as new info becomes available.

*We use the term “Power RB” to separate physically bigger, more between-the-tackles-capable RBs from our “Speed RBs” group. “Speed RBs” are physically smaller but much faster/quicker, and less likely to flourish between the tackles.

 

In a sense, Samaje Perine is the anti-Joe Mixon (his former teammate/stablemate at O.U.).

— Mixon is notorious for his off-field assault issue/suspension from Oklahoma. Perine was a team captain and an All-Academic team member.

— Mixon sounds like, looks like, and has the comfort level of an unconfident teenager in an interview. Perine is humble, thoughtful, and confident with others.

— Mixon has great speed for his size and is adept at finding holes and shooting through them. Perine is five pounds bigger, but two inches smaller…built more like a tank. He uses power and stiff-arms to gain extra yardage.

— Mixon has good hands in the passing game, Perine is average to below average as a pass-catcher.

— Mixon isn’t real big on blocking. Perine is as good a blocker as you’ll find at RB in this draft or in others (for a guy that can run the ball well).

 

Both players have gifts they bring to the NFL. They are legit NFL starting RB talents. Given all the nonfootball stuff, I think teams should rather desire Perine over Mixon.

When I watch Perine on tape, I swear I see Jordan Howard all over again. They run/move the same way – power runners who read their blocks and find space to roll…and then they roll. When a defender tackles them…the defender is worse for the wear. Howard and Perine aren’t analytics guys you find by running a typical athleticism formula. They have a gift that’s hard to extrapolate out of something like the antiquated/limited SPARQ or whatever formula draftniks are in love with these days. Some guys have ‘it’, and Perine has it. He was more successful at Oklahoma than Mixon was…he wasn’t as ‘sexy’ or turbulent as Mixon – Perine was just better.

Perine will face the same issues in the NFL as he did in college, and as Jordan Howard did transitioning. They are not ‘sexy’ runners, so coaches overlook them…pigeonhole them as short yardage specialists. John Fox tried his hardest to push Jeremy Langford and Ka’Deem Carey, also the two RBs who the analysts and media loved. Howard finally got the chance and eventually couldn’t be denied. Had Howard been given the Ezekiel Elliott red carpet from day one…Howard would be the Rookie of the Year producer from 2016. Perine is in for the same bias/uphill battle.

What people will hesitate at with Perine, and probably his new coaches too…he isn’t as dynamic catching passes. What WILL get coaches’ attention, and should get him pushed into lineups right away, is his blocking. You always see beloved, speedster RB names hit the NFL with a lot of fan/media love – and immediately get parked because they can’t block…and they can disappear for years. Perine comes out of the package ‘ready to go’ as a blocker.

As stated in my Joe Mixon scouting report (about Mixon) – Perine is not a transformative RB prospect, just a really good one. A solid ‘B’, maybe ‘B+’ prospect for the NFL. He’s going to do fine. He’s not David Johnson or Le’Veon Bell, but he’s very good/solid. You want Perine in your backfield and in your locker room…and he’s going to come at a bargain price.

 

Samaje Perine, through the lens of our “Power RB” Scouting Algorithm

Oklahoma’s all-time rushing leader…surpassing Billy Sims.

1,713 rushing yards and 21 TDs as a freshman.

Rushed for an NCAA record 427 yards against Kansas in 2014 (as a freshman). Also, rushed for 5 TDs in that game.

Three bowl games (two against Clemson) in his career, averaging 92.7 rushing yards 107.7 totally yards per game.

50 TDs scored over his final 33 games in college.

 

NFL Combine data…

5′10’5″/233, 10.0″ hands, 30.4″ arms

4.65 40-time, 4.37 shuttle, 7.26 three-cone

30 bench press reps, 33.0″ vertical, 9′8″ broad jump

 

Perine’s college stats on CFB Reference:  http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/samaje-perine-1.html

 

The NFL “Power RB” that Samaje Perine most compares with statistically in college, within our system:

I keep saying “He’s like Jordan Howard.” I mean, he’s really like Jordan Howard. Perine is a physically tougher version of Howard. I’m not sure any RB I’ve ever seen has the vision at the line of scrimmage that Howard does…and Perine is good, but not like Howard reading holes/blocking. If Perine is close in vision/instincts running the ball – he’s a more athletic and stronger version of Howard.

 

RatingRB-ReRB-RuNameNameCollegeYrHHWSpeedAgilityPower
7.9782.908.52PerineSamajeOklahoma2017510.5233-2.121.0311.48
7.5143.938.25HowardJordanIndiana2016511.72303.142.319.96
7.6432.977.45GreeneShonnIowa2009510.42271.704.817.54
7.2036.125.91WatsonTerrellAzusa Pacific201560.92396.405.6810.72
6.1651.814.85GanawayTerranceBaylor2012511.4239-1.205.569.45
8.4133.546.93LacyEddieAlabama2013511.0231-1.32-0.0210.31
9.0933.368.80WellsChrisOhio State200961.12356.142.419.81
6.3142.765.22HilliardLexMontana2008511.1231-3.165.887.73

 

*A score of 8.50+ is where we see a stronger correlation of RBs going on to become NFL good/great/elite. A score of 10.00+ is more rarefied air in our system and indicates a greater probability of becoming an elite NFL RB.

All of the RB ratings are based on a 0–10 scale, but a player can score negative, or above a 10.0 in certain instances.

Overall rating/score = A combination of several on-field performance measures, including refinement for the strength of opponents faced, mixed with all the physical measurement metrics—then compared/rated historically within our database and formulas. More of a traditional three-down search—runner, blocker, and receiver.

*RB-Re score = New/testing in 2017. Our new formula/rating that attempts to identify and quantify a prospect’s receiving skills even deeper than in our original formulas. RB prospects can now make it/thrive in the NFL strictly based on their receiving skills—it is an individual attribute sought out for the NFL and no longer dismissed or overlooked. Our rating combines a study of their receiving numbers in college in relation to their offense and opponents, as well as profiling size-speed-agility along with hand-size measurables, etc.

*RB-Ru score = New/testing in 2017. Our new formula/rating that attempts to classify and quantify an RB prospect’s ability strictly as a runner of the ball. Our rating combines a study of their rushing numbers in college in relation to their offense and strength of opponents, as well as profiling size-speed-agility along with various size measurables, etc.

Raw Speed Metric = A combination of several speed and size measurements from the NFL Combine, judged along with physical size profile, and then compared/rated historically within our database and scouting formulas. This is a rating strictly for RBs of a similar/bigger size profile.

Agility Metric = A combination of several speed and agility measurements from the NFL Combine, judged along with physical size profile, and then compared/rated historically within our database and scouting formulas. This is a rating strictly for RBs of a similar/bigger size profile.

 

 

2017 NFL Draft outlook…

Most projections for Perine are fourth or fifth round. Jordan Howard went fifth round, and there was more enthusiasm for Howard…so Perine as a fifth-rounder is likely.

NFL Outlook: It’s all about getting a chance with Perine. As a fifth+ round pick he’s not being brought in to take over day one. John Fox fought Jordan Howard for weeks into the 2016 season…even after Howard started to pop, there was a Ka’Deem Carey re-push that failed. Perine’s NFL career depends upon what team and when the starter in front of him fails/gets hurt in order to get his chance.

 

 

rcf@collegefootballmetrics.com

 

– R.C. Fischer is an NFL Draft analyst for College Football Metrics.com and a football projections analyst and writer for Fantasy Football Metrics.com. Read more of his work on FantasyPros and various football websites. His group also provides player projections for fantasy software such as Advanced Sports Logic’s The Machine.

 

NFL Draft 2017 Scouting Report: RB Joe Mixon, Oklahoma

 

NFL Draft 2017 Scouting Report: RB Joe Mixon, Oklahoma

*Our RB grades can and will change as more information comes in from Pro Day workouts, leaked Wonderlic test results, etc. We will update ratings as new info becomes available.

*We use the term “Power RB” to separate physically bigger, more between-the-tackles-capable RBs from our “Speed RBs” group. “Speed RBs” are physically smaller but much faster/quicker, and less likely to flourish between the tackles.

 

Put a pin in any discussion about Mixon’s off-field issues. We’ll come back to that. Let’s first determine if there’s any NFL talent here to discuss…otherwise the rest of it doesn’t matter.

The answer is ‘yes’. Yes, there is NFL talent with Mixon. You can argue whether it’s ‘good’ or ‘great’, but there’s NFL talent here. At his foundation, you have a 225+ pound running back who can run a 4.45–4.50 40-time. That’s legit right there before you open up any other scouting box. No other running back at 220+ pounds at the NFL Combine ran below a 4.51 (Fournette). In the 220–230 pound weight class, Mixon may be the fastest RB prospect in the 2017 draft class. He has nice acceleration, above-average strength (21 bench reps), and weak but not terrible agility with shuttle and three-cone times that are ‘OK’-not-great. It’s an NFL body with athleticism.

But can he play, succeed at the next level? I think so. Watching his tape this week, I see him as similar to Ezekiel Elliott (and I’m not a huge Elliott fan, so slow down). 225+ pound RBs who can run in the 4.4s with quick enough/shifty feet, but weaker east-west running skills – all they need is good blocking and a heavy workload between the tackles and they’ll produce. Like Elliott, Mixon is patient with good vision…they have the ability to slow into congestion and then find the space and pop through it. Mixon doesn’t blindly run up blockers’ backs…he’s picking his spots. Not many RBs have the vision and patience like that.

Mixon can be a main-carry, workhorse, three-down RB…he’s big enough to take a beating. He has above-average hands in the passing game. He has NFL+ athleticism. He’s a legit NFL RB. You can debate how good. I’d call him a ‘B’ to ‘B+’ talent. Mixon is not David JohnsonTodd Gurley, Le’Veon Bell talented…but he’s talented.

Now, what do you do with his highly publicized off-field incident of punching a female student in an altercation…which led to a suspension and eventual release from the team? How do you insert that into the scouting landscape?

Everyone is going to judge Mixon through their lens of watching what happened on video with his incident. Some say, “You never hit a female, end of story.” Some are quietly looking at the tape and wondering if they would have been able to restrain themselves in the moment. The overall question is – will Mixon be an off-field headache/trouble in the locker room, etc. going forward? Is this a problem that will occur again? Is this in Mixon’s character? What is Mixon’s character?

Most of us have swept such an issue with Tyreek Hill under the rug. His action wasn’t on video. The press wasn’t able to have a field day with Hill like they are with Mixon. Hill’s similar transgression was 10x worse (if you want to judge between the two) than what Mixon did (my opinion). To some degree, the world is picking and choosing its outrage with video as a driving force on Mixon. Teams will want to draft Mixon but will not pay a higher price because his drafting team will get media heat regardless, but it will be worse if he’s a first round pick…or second, perhaps.

My notes on this are: I studied Mixon’s reaction to all this, and I don’t get the feeling that he is contrite. I believe he wishes this never happened. Who wouldn’t? But I don’t know that he is fully sorry or aware. Most of his post-event interviews are aloof, smug, distant. There’s not a genuine ‘handling’ of the situation by him. He’s bumbled it…which is understandable given he’s a kid, but there’s a lot of ‘kid’ in Mixon. That’s a scary signal for NFL teams. I walk away from my Mixon study wondering if this single event is more telling of problems ahead, more than just a one-off incident. Not that he’s going to go around punching everyone…but I wonder if there’s a lack of character/maturity that will haunt him. Everywhere he goes he’ll be known as ‘that guy’. When he fails some in the NFL and the media/fans rip him to shreds…will he have a firm backbone/resolve or will he turn to the wrong crowd/wrong vices to satisfy the negative emotions?

You want Mixon’s talent on your NFL roster…you don’t want to pay a lot for it in case it blows up.

*Note — there is a 2016 event with Mixon. He was suspended for a game for this incident…but probably warranted more considering the hitting a female incident a few years back. OU should be ashamed. Mixon got a parking ticket, and got into a verbal altercation with the attendant. He also tore up the ticket and threw it into their face. So, Mixon’s a real charmer. The more you know about Mixon the more you want to bet and root against him.

 

Joe Mixon, through the lens of our “Power RB” Scouting Algorithm

Mixon’s off-field stuff causes concern, and his performance in college may have some reason for pause as well…

His big games in college came against terrible Big 12 defenses. When he faced those run-and-gun Big 12 teams (Baylor, West Virginia, Texas Tech), Mixon had his 100+ yard rushing games. Against more stable, balanced, bigger name schools…Mixon wasn’t as great. Mixon doesn’t look as good versus Texas, Tennessee, Ohio State, Houston, Auburn, Clemson, and Kansas State.

Mixon had seven 100+ yard rushing games…against Texas Tech 2x, West Virginia, Baylor, Louisiana-Monroe, TCU, and Oklahoma State. TCU and Oklahoma State you want to have more respect for, but both were not in the top 70 in run defense last season (out of 128 D1 schools).

When you really look over Mixon’s game logs and consider the competition and outputs…it really wasn’t all that impressive, quite frankly.

 

Pro Day data…

6′0.6″/228

4.45 40-time, 1.51 10-yard, 4.27 shuttle, 7.10 three-cone

21 bench press reps, 35.0″ vertical, 9′10″ broad jump

 

Mixon’s college stats on CFB Reference: http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/joe-mixon-1.html

 

 

The NFL “Power RB” that Joe Mixon most compares with statistically in college, within our system:

I’m not surprised our system saw Ezekiel Elliott as a likely match…it’s the first thing that came to my mind. Remember, we don’t feel Elliott is as great a running back as the world does. Had Elliott gone to the Rams (instead of Gurley), you wouldn’t have cared as much about him today. Elliott is good and got a great team to work with, and was handed the keys to the kingdom. Mixon will not be handed those same keys…and who knows what team/coaches he’ll land with. He’s very likely entering the league as a backup.

 

RatingRB-ReRB-RuNameNameCollegeYrHHWSpeedAgilityPower
7.3607.887.13MixonJoeOklahoma201760.62288.675.298.17
8.3897.867.94ElliottEzekielOhio State2016511.82259.497.376.37
8.8578.938.59BrownRonnieAuburn200560.223311.116.526.39
6.5717.946.10ProsiseC.J.Notre Dame201660.42207.89-1.435.09
3.7963.782.48IvoryChrisTiffin2010511.42227.850.537.37
5.0085.913.65SmithKolbyLouisville2007511.22206.812.595.40
4.5123.413.28WilliamsDamienOklahoma2014511.22222.14-0.095.78

 

*A score of 8.50+ is where we see a stronger correlation of RBs going on to become NFL good/great/elite. A score of 10.00+ is more rarefied air in our system and indicates a greater probability of becoming an elite NFL RB.

All of the RB ratings are based on a 0–10 scale, but a player can score negative, or above a 10.0 in certain instances.

Overall rating/score = A combination of several on-field performance measures, including refinement for the strength of opponents faced, mixed with all the physical measurement metrics—then compared/rated historically within our database and formulas. More of a traditional three-down search—runner, blocker, and receiver.

*RB-Re score = New/testing in 2017. Our new formula/rating that attempts to identify and quantify a prospect’s receiving skills even deeper than in our original formulas. RB prospects can now make it/thrive in the NFL strictly based on their receiving skills—it is an individual attribute sought out for the NFL and no longer dismissed or overlooked. Our rating combines a study of their receiving numbers in college in relation to their offense and opponents, as well as profiling size-speed-agility along with hand-size measurables, etc.

*RB-Ru score = New/testing in 2017. Our new formula/rating that attempts to classify and quantify an RB prospect’s ability strictly as a runner of the ball. Our rating combines a study of their rushing numbers in college in relation to their offense and strength of opponents, as well as profiling size-speed-agility along with various size measurables, etc.

Raw Speed Metric = A combination of several speed and size measurements from the NFL Combine, judged along with physical size profile, and then compared/rated historically within our database and scouting formulas. This is a rating strictly for RBs of a similar/bigger size profile.

Agility Metric = A combination of several speed and agility measurements from the NFL Combine, judged along with physical size profile, and then compared/rated historically within our database and scouting formulas. This is a rating strictly for RBs of a similar/bigger size profile.

 

2017 NFL Draft outlook…

I’ll say Mixon goes in the third round…possibly the late second or falls into the fourth. Teams will want to take him top 40, but they have the public and media to deal with. I also wouldn’t be shocked if Mixon goes to a very good team as a value pick late in a particular round – to Dallas or Pittsburgh as examples. A place where he would not be expected to start…and when the pick is made everyone cries ‘the rich get richer’.

NFL Outlook: I have no idea where this is headed. My gut tells me expectations are higher than the reality with Mixon…that he can’t live up to the hype. His teammate Samaje Perine was a far superior running back on the same team, and most fans or analysts could care less about Perine. Between the unhealthy focus and the off-field circus this invites…I think the deck is stacked against Mixon, especially if he winds up in a dysfunctional organization. There is hope, but betting for or against a great career – I bet against it…but not with a lot of money.

 

rcf@collegefootballmetrics.com

 

– R.C. Fischer is an NFL Draft analyst for College Football Metrics.com and a football projections analyst and writer for Fantasy Football Metrics.com. Read more of his work on FantasyPros and various football websites. His group also provides player projections for fantasy software such as Advanced Sports Logic’s The Machine.

 

NFL Draft 2017 Scouting Report: ILB Zach Cunningham, Vandy

This content is restricted to subscribers of College Football Metrics 2017.

 

WR Chris Godwin, Penn State — 2017 NFL Draft Profile

Twitter @CFBMetrics

 

WR Chris Godwin, Penn State 

  • Ran the 2nd fastest 40-time of any 200+ pound WR prospect at the 2017 NFL Combine (4.42)
  • Ran the fastest short shuttle time of any WR prospect at the 2017 NFL Combine (4.00). It was the third fastest of any prospect from any position.
  • 9 catches for 187 yards and 2 TDs against USC in the Rose Bowl (final college game)
  • Top 4 in the catches and receiving yards in the Big Ten.

 

 

*CFM Full Scouting Report (link):  CFM Scouting Report — Chris Godwin

 — I believe Chris Godwin belongs in a discussion as one of the top 3 WR prospects in this draft class. There’s an under-the-radar reason why he could be in that discussion, and we explore that in our full scouting report.

 

 

CBS Sports (as of this publish date) #5 WR prospect, #51 overall

ESPN (as of this publish date) #12 WR prospect, #102 overall

Dynasty Rookie Draft (ADP as of this publish date): #7 WR taken, #24 overall

 

 

The preeminent NFL Draft and Dynasty Rookie Draft scouting service – College Football Metrics.com has launched its sixth year of scouting analytics and detailed reports, rankings and coverage of all things NFL Draft…including the college all-star bowls, the NFL Combine, and the draft itself. Our analysis is like none other, designed to defy and confound the mainstream coverage – who else had David Johnson on par with Todd Gurley in 2015? Or Tyrell Williams as a top WR prospect in 2015? Or Jatavis Brown and Sean Davis as top defensive prospects in 2016? Who else railed against Laquon Treadwell and Jameis Winston from the jump in their draft years? What will we discover with our computer scouting models in 2017?

For a completely different scouting service, visit collegefootballmetrics.com. Originally designed for NFL personnel departments, it has become home to the high stakes dynasty and fantasy profiteers – come see why that one person in your league always finds all those players ahead of everyone else…or become that person.

 

 

Measurables:

Info Hght Wght Hand ArmL 40-D 10-D Bench Vert. Broad ShSht 3-Cone
 Combine 6’1.0″  209  9.1″  31.6″  4.42  1.54 15  36.0″ 10’6″ 4.00 7.01
 Pro Day  x  x  x  x  x  x  x  x  x  x  x

 

 

College Statistics:

Year Games Carr, RushYds RushTD YdPrCth Recept RecYds RecTD
2014 13 2 1 0 13.0 26 338 2
2015 13 0 0 0 16.0 69 1,101 5
2016 13 1 13 0 16.6 59 982 11
TOTAL 39 3 14 0 15.7 154 2,421 18
Avg per gm last 2yrs X 0.0 0.5 0.00 16.4 4.9 80.1 0.62

 

 

Link to College Profile: College Bio — Chris Godwin

Link to background storyFreep.com — Chris Godwin Trained By Calvin Johnson

 

 *See more of our football analysis at Fantasy Football Metrics.com

 

 

 

 

NFL Draft 2017 Scouting Report: OLB Haason Reddick, Temple

This content is restricted to subscribers of College Football Metrics 2017.

 

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