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2017 NFL Mock Draft — Xavier Cromartie’s One Round Mock (4.0)

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College Football Metrics aims to remove bias from NFL Draft analysis. We want to objectively scout prospects, and we want to accurately analyze how the free market values prospects. Thus, CFM has partnered with Xavier Cromartie (Twitter @xaviercromartie / Gab @xm) to produce mock drafts and top 100 prospect boards based on his latest intel, research, and analysis. Xavier was the final grand prize winner of ESPN’s NFL Draft 1st Round Forecast contest, and he is the undefeated Play The Draft Champion Emeritus.

In 2015, we made our debut in The Huddle Report’s exclusive, experts-only NFL Draft contests. Our two-year average score in the mock draft contest is 42.5 (#12 two-year average out of 86 entries), and our two-year average score in the top 100 contest is 83.5 (#4 two-year average out of 43 entries).

Draft scenarios change as new information comes in during draft season, and so we will run updates here as often as Xavier makes adjustments to his mocks and boards.

 

Round 1

  1. Cleveland Browns: 7T Myles Garrett (Texas A&M) 1

If they don’t sign a veteran QB, they will stick with Kessler because they like his metrics.

 

  1. San Francisco 49ers: QB Mitch Trubisky (North Carolina) 2

All new management and no QB.

 

  1. Chicago Bears: 5T Jonathan Allen (Alabama) 3

They should land Garoppolo at QB. The DL needs more than Akiem Hicks.

 

  1. Jacksonville Jaguars: CB Marlon Humphrey (Alabama) (+) 9

Very few mocks have a CB here. But Amukamara is a FA, and they could cut House with no cap hit. Humphrey and Lattimore are both highly ranked CBs.

 

  1. Tennessee Titans (via LAR): CB Marshon Lattimore (Ohio State) 5

TEN is in quite good shape at every position except DB.

 

  1. New York Jets: RB Leonard Fournette (Louisiana State) 6

I project Mike Glennon as their QB. They go BPA. Forte and Powell are aging. They have needs everywhere except DL.

 

  1. Los Angeles Chargers: S Malik Hooker (Ohio State) 7

Hooker to LAC has become a meme, but it fits too nicely to change it.

 

  1. Carolina Panthers: 5T Solomon Thomas (Stanford) (+) 20

I think Gettleman will load up on DLs early and often.

 

  1. Cincinnati Bengals: 7T Derek Barnett (Tennessee) () 8

CIN tends to go defense early. Barnett is the best need/value combo. No depth after Dunlap and Johnson.

 

  1. Buffalo Bills: WR Mike Williams (Clemson) (+) 13

The #1 reason they will take him is that he is from Clemson. Also, they’re losing 4 WRs to FA. They may end up with Deshaun Watson (Clemson) as well.

 

  1. New Orleans Saints: CB Sidney Jones (Washington) 11

“NO’s pass defense was poor last year.” (You can copy/paste this sentence every year.)

 

  1. Cleveland Browns (via PHI): S Jamal Adams (Louisiana State) () 4

CLE needs a lot of things, and S is one of the bigger needs.

 

  1. Arizona Cardinals: QB DeShone Kizer (Notre Dame) () 10

I think that Kizer is the QB whom Keim really wants. (That’s meant as an insult to Keim and his drafting ability.)

 

  1. Indianapolis Colts: 7T Charles Harris (Missouri) 14

All the over-the-hill, ineffective pass-rushers are heading to FA. No team has a greater need at any position than IND does at OLB.

 

  1. Philadelphia Eagles: CB Teez Tabor (Florida) (+) 27

Jalen Mills is PHI’s only CB remaining. Look for either of the Florida CBs here.

 

  1. Baltimore Ravens: TE OJ Howard (Alabama) 16

Do you really think that Ozzie Newsome will pass on an Alabama TE? He’s hoping that he lasts this long.

 

  1. Washington Redskins: CB Adoree’ Jackson (Southern Cal) (+) 29

This pick could go in any direction. If Breeland moves to S, as he should, then CB is weak after Norman.

 

  1. Tennessee Titans: ILB Reuben Foster (Alabama) () 12

They’re losing their ILB depth this year and the starters next year.

 

  1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: WR John Ross (Washington) (+) 21

I think that Ross will go before Corey Davis.

 

  1. Denver Broncos: RB Christian McCaffrey (Stanford) (+) NR

Ed McCaffrey’s son… Stanford… And they need a RB like him.

 

  1. Detroit Lions: 7T Taco Charlton (Michigan) (+) 28

Devin Taylor is a FA. They have no one else at DE except Ansah.

 

  1. Miami Dolphins: ILB Zach Cunningham (Vanderbilt) 22

Beyond Alonso, MIA has a terrible group of LBs.

 

  1. New York Giants: LT Cam Robinson (Alabama) 23

Reese seems disappointed in Flowers and ready to get a new LT.

 

  1. Oakland Raiders: RB Dalvin Cook (Florida State) () 15

For whatever reason, Latavius Murray seems to be on his way out. This isn’t really a shocking fall for Cook. An outside runner with a lot of baggage.

 

  1. Houston Texans: $LB Jabrill Peppers (Michigan) 25

He could play S or LB, depending on the situation. He is the type that Rick Smith will target, I think.

 

  1. Seattle Seahawks: LT Ryan Ramczyk (Wisconsin) 26

If any of the top 3 LTs fall to SEA, they should take him.

 

  1. Kansas City Chiefs: CB Quincy Wilson (Florida) () 18

A defensive pick is likely, with an SEC CB being the most likely.

 

  1. Dallas Cowboys: CB Tre’Davious White (Louisiana State) (+) NR

Even if Carr stays while Mr. 4-on-the-Wonderlic leaves for FA, they need a CB. DE is also a need.

 

  1. Green Bay Packers: 9T Takkarist McKinley (UCLA) (+) NR

GB’s CBs are horrible, but they also need an OLB. Since McKinley is the best Pac-12 player available, he’s the pick.

 

  1. Pittsburgh Steelers: CB Gareon Conley (Ohio State) (+) 32

Defender, good metrics, Ohio State… everything PIT looks for in a draft pick.

 

  1. Atlanta Falcons: 3T Caleb Brantley (Florida) 31

The DL really needs some work, especially inside.

 

  1. New England Patriots: 9T Tim Williams (Alabama) () 30

NE has the best roster in the league, so Belichick can do whatever he wants.

 

Dropped out: 5T Malik McDowell (17), WR Corey Davis (19), ILB Jarrad Davis (24)

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