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2017 NFL Mock Draft — Xavier Cromartie’s One Round Mock (2.0)

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College Football Metrics aims to remove bias from NFL Draft analysis. We want to objectively scout prospects, and we want to accurately analyze how the free market values prospects. Thus, CFM has partnered with Xavier Cromartie (Twitter @xaviercromartie / Gab @xm) to produce mock drafts and top 100 prospect boards based on his latest intel, research, and analysis. Xavier was the final grand prize winner of ESPN’s NFL Draft 1st Round Forecast contest, and he is the undefeated Play The Draft Champion Emeritus.

In 2015, we made our debut in The Huddle Report’s exclusive, experts-only NFL Draft contests. Our two-year average score in the mock draft contest is 42.5 (#12 two-year average out of 86 entries), and our two-year average score in the top 100 contest is 83.5 (#4 two-year average out of 43 entries).

Draft scenarios change as new information comes in during draft season, and so we will run updates here as often as Xavier makes adjustments to his mocks and boards.

 

Round 1

  1. Cleveland Browns: 7T Myles Garrett (Texas A&M) 1

I’m projecting Tyrod Taylor as the Browns’ QB. There’s no other real option here besides Garrett.

 

  1. San Francisco 49ers: QB Mitch Trubisky (North Carolina) 2

I guess Schaub as their veteran QB makes sense, but they need to draft one here. They’re starting over.

 

  1. Chicago Bears: 5T Jonathan Allen (Alabama) (+) 4

I’m projecting Jimmy Garoppolo as the Bears’ QB. Their d-line remains soft.

 

  1. Jacksonville Jaguars: S Jamal Adams (Louisiana State) (+) 12

Cyprien is a free agent, so they have nothing at SS.

 

  1. Tennessee Titans (via LAR): CB Marshon Lattimore (Ohio State) (+) 11

They were rotating DBs. They need to rebuild the whole secondary.

 

  1. New York Jets: RB Leonard Fournette (Louisiana State) 6

I’m projecting Mike Glennon as the Jets’ QB. They will take the best player. Building the offense around a RB makes sense for them.

 

  1. Los Angeles Chargers: S Malik Hooker (Ohio State) 7

Their safety situation is a barren wasteland.

 

  1. Carolina Panthers: 7T Derek Barnett (Tennessee) (+) 14

They didn’t have much of a pass rush and a few contracts are up.

 

  1. Cincinnati Bengals: CB Marlon Humphrey (Alabama) (-) 5

CBs Jones and Kirkpatrick both could depart, and the Bengals are known for their love of CBs.

 

  1. Buffalo Bills: QB DeShone Kizer (Notre Dame) (-) 3

Here’s a QB who doesn’t win nor throw accurately, so he’s a nice fit for the Bills.

 

  1. New Orleans Saints: CB Sidney Jones (Washington) (+) 29

They have an eternal need to improve their pass defense.

 

  1. Cleveland Browns (via PHI): ILB Reuben Foster (Alabama) (+) 17

In their new 4-3, they can put Kirksey at WLB, Foster at MLB, and Collins at SLB.

 

  1. Arizona Cardinals: WR Mike Williams (Clemson) (-) 9

It’s pretty clear that they need to think about the future at WR. A pair of sub-180 lb guys won’t work.

 

  1. Indianapolis Colts: 9T Charles Harris (Missouri) (+) 28

They have literally no one to rush the passer. Every contract is up.

 

  1. Philadelphia Eagles: RB Dalvin Cook (Florida State) (-) 8

Pederson would love a RB similar to Jamaal Charles. He tried to make Sproles a feature back.

 

  1. Baltimore Ravens: TE OJ Howard (Alabama) (+) 22

Newsome will convince himself to take Howard. They are weak at TE.

 

  1. Washington Redskins: 5T Malik McDowell (Michigan State) (+) 18

It’s time to rebuild the defensive line.

 

  1. Tennessee Titans: CB Quincy Wilson (Florida) (-) 15

Two CBs in the first round wouldn’t be crazy.

 

  1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: WR Corey Davis (Western Michigan) (-) 16

There’s no one after Mike Evans.

 

  1. Denver Broncos: 5T Solomon Thomas (Stanford) 20

I’m projecting Tony Romo as the Broncos’ QB. Not hard to imagine that Elway would take a Stanford guy.

 

  1. Detroit Lions: WR John Ross (Washington) (-) 19

They’re stuck with Marvin Jones’s contract, but they need to find playmakers. The Seahawks shut down their offense in the playoffs. Boldin is gone.

 

  1. Miami Dolphins: ILB Zach Cunningham (Vanderbilt) (+) 24

Alonso moves to WLB and Cunningham takes over at MLB.

 

  1. New York Giants: LT Cam Robinson (Alabama) 23

They have to go offense. A run-mauling LT would help change their offensive identity.

 

  1. Oakland Raiders: ILB Jarrad Davis (Florida) (+) NR

Poor LB play hurt their defense all year and Malcolm Smith’s contract is up.

 

  1. Houston Texans: S Jabrill Peppers (Michigan) (-) 13

Keep the defense strong. Safety is a weak point.

 

  1. Seattle Seahawks: LT Ryan Ramczyk (Wisconsin) 26

They continue to have many needs on the o-line, starting at LT.

 

  1. Kansas City Chiefs: CB Teez Tabor (Florida) (-) 21

Since they never show interest in upgrading at WR, they can go with a CB opposite Peters.

 

  1. Dallas Cowboys: 7T Taco Charlton (Michigan) (+) NR

They’re rotating a bunch of mediocre players on the d-line.

 

  1. Green Bay Packers: CB Adoree’ Jackson (Southern Cal)

Randall and Rollins are busts. GB can’t win with their CBs. They’ve shown a preference for Pac-12 players.

 

  1. Pittsburgh Steelers: 9T Tim Williams (Alabama) (+) NR

They really need an edge rusher, so they’ll overlook the character issues.

 

  1. Atlanta Falcons: 3T Caleb Brantley (Florida) 31

They’re about to lose 3 d-linemen from their massive rotation. They have no one other than Grady Jarrett inside.

 

  1. New England Patriots: CB Gareon Conley (Ohio State) 32

Logan Ryan is probably leaving. Belichick/Meyer connection.

 

Dropped out: QB Deshaun Watson (10), QB Patrick Mahomes (25), 9T Dawuane Smoot (30)

 

 

The preeminent NFL Draft and Dynasty Rookie Draft scouting service – College Football Metrics.com is getting ready to launch its sixth year of scouting analytics and detailed reports, rankings and coverage of all things NFL Draft…including the college all-star bowls, the NFL Combine, and the draft itself. Our analysis is like none other, designed to defy and confound the mainstream coverage – who else had David Johnson on par with Todd Gurley in 2015? Or Tyrell Williams as a top WR prospect in 2015? Or Jatavis Brown and Sean Davis as top defensive prospects in 2016? Who else railed against Laquon Treadwell and Jameis Winston from the jump in their draft years? What will we discover with our computer scouting models in 2017?

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