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College Football Metrics: 2015 Mock Draft 2.0 (The first three rounds)

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 Xavier Cromartie’s Mock Draft 2.0 for 2015… @xaviercromartie on Twitter

 

1) Tampa Bay Buccaneers: QB Jameis Winston

The Bucs struggled to generate offense last season and have not treated Glennon like he is their guy. The pick should come down to Winston v Mariota. It will end up the same way as any relationship choice made between an ‘alpha bad-boy’ and a ‘beta nice guy.’ The Bucs may talk about liking Mariota, but when it’s time to ‘hop into bed,’ Winston is the likely winner. His character concerns are vastly overblown, and I expect him to surprise the masses with a 25-30 on the Wonderlic.

 

2) Tennessee Titans: DE Leonard Williams

I think that the Titans are serious about giving Mettenberger a chance to start. He has some ‘Cutleresque’ appeal (statistically speaking). The Titans are the type of team that will overpay Mark Sanchez in free agency as a backup plan. Williams fits a need for improved interior D-line play in their 3-4.

 

3) Jacksonville Jaguars: DE Randy Gregory

The mindset in Jacksonville is likely that the offense has a lot of young talent, and it’s in the hands of Bortles now. Gregory would play the Leo position. The Jags do not seem to be afraid of ‘project’ picks.

 

4) Oakland Raiders: WR Amari Cooper

Oakland probably feels that they have a young nucleus on defense with Mack, Moore, and Hayden. The thinking here is likely to be that inserting young explosive offensive talents Latavius Murray and Amari Cooper around Carr will make Carr something better than the low-end starter he is. 

 

5) Washington Pigskins: OLB Dante Fowler

Washington has the luxury of being able to blame anything that goes wrong on offense on RG3. They need to fix their defense anyway. Orakpo will be gone, and so another 3-4 OLB is needed. No secondary player is worth this pick.

 

6) New York Jets: QB Marcus Mariota

Geno Smith has been one of the worst starting QBs in the league for two years. If either Mariota or Winston are available, the Jets would have to pick him.

 

7) Chicago Bears: NT Danny Shelton

The Bears are surely targeting defense. They are expected to move to a 3-4. Shelton is exactly the kind of behemoth in the middle of the defense that the Bears need.

 

8) Atlanta Falcons: DE Shane Ray

Everyone expects the Falcons to look for a pass-rusher. Ray is another ‘Leo’ type who seems like the best fit.

 

9) New York Giants: S Landon Collins

Consensus is that it’s not a deep safety class. The Giants have a history of taking DBs early in the draft, and they must be frustrated at the safety position. D-line is a concern as well, but there don’t seem to be any good matches available here.

 

10) St. Louis Rams: RT/G Brandon Scherff

Scherff is frequently described as a top prospect but is more of a run blocker. Therefore, he’s a good fit for the run-heavy Rams, who are always looking to improve their offense.

 

11) Minnesota Vikings: WR DeVante Parker

It’s not just a sweet Louisville connection story. WR is the Vikings most valued position of need, and Parker is likely the highest valued player here.

 

12) Cleveland Browns: WR Kevin White

White has been compared to both Julio Jones (4.34) and Larry Fitzgerald (4.63), strangely. Last season, they knew they wouldn’t have Josh Gordon, but they ignored WR. I would expect the pressure to be strong not to repeat that mistake.

 

13) New Orleans Saints: CB Trae Waynes

They should obviously work on repairing their disastrous defense. Better coverage in the secondary would be a good start. All they have is Keenan Lewis.

 

14) Miami Dolphins: RT/G La’el Collins

Despite their good rushing numbers, the Dolphins o-line was really as terrible as expected, especially at guard. LT Branden Albert is recovering from a torn ACL. Collins would be valued by the Dolphins for his ability to shuffle between guard and tackle.

 

15) San Francisco 49ers: CB Marcus Peters

Although WR is a need, and they’ve taken them in round one before, I don’t think they’ll prioritize it. The 49ers want to build their team like the Seahawks. CB is a need. Peters is more of an “attitude” question than “character” (criminal). The conflict was with a particular coaching staff, not necessarily all coaching staffs. He just needs to interview well and talk about what it would mean to him to return to the Bay Area.

 

16) Houston Texans: RT TJ Clemmings

The Texans should continue doing what has worked for years: pounding Arian Foster. The defense played fairly well last season, and so they should keep the o-line strong.

 

17) San Diego Chargers: LT Andrus Peat

The Chargers are an all-around average team with multiple needs. I think they’ll be most frustrated by their late-season offensive struggles. Rather than take a RB in round one, they take a solid run-blocking left tackle to help rebuild the o-line.

 

18) Kansas City Chiefs: LT/RT Erick Flowers

WRs are ghosts in this offense, so why bother taking one? The Chiefs are much like the Texans. They are solid on defense, and their best bet is to keep controlling the game with Jamaal Charles/Knile Davis.

 

19) Cleveland Browns: NT Jordan Phillips

The Browns were gashed pretty badly by the run last season, and it hindered the ability of their own rushing attack to control the game. Phillips is a much-needed true nose tackle for their 3-4 scheme.

 

20) Philadelphia Eagles: OLB Vic Beasley

Beasley is a perfect complement opposite Connor Barwin. Barwin is the more versatile, pass-coverage OLB. What the Eagles are lacking is the pure edge rusher on the other side.

 

21) Cincinnati Bengals: DT Malcom Brown

The Bengals need to improve their defensive line play. They like versatility, and so Brown is a great fit. He’s a penetrator who can shift positions on the line.

 

22) Pittsburgh Steelers: OLB Alvin Dupree

The only question here is which defensive player they’ll value the most. When a pass-rusher is a need, it’s the best bet. Dupree is a bit of a raw athlete with big upside, but the Steelers tend to ease in rookies anyway.

 

23) Detroit Lions: RB Melvin Gordon III

The Lions need to figure out how to improve on offense, other than getting a better QB. The run on O-Linemen is over. They were one of the worst rushing teams last season. Bell and Bush are nearing 30. Time for a fresh stud.

 

24) Arizona Cardinals: OLB Eli Harold

The offensive side just needs a healthy QB and can find a RB later. The Cardinals defense has been great recently, but it lacks an impact pass-rusher. Harold is a 3-4 rusher who should rise into the first round with a good Combine.

 

25) Carolina Panthers: WR Phillip Dorsett

After the Combine, Dorsett is likely to shoot into the first round. The Panthers need a speed receiver opposite Kelvin Benjamin. O-Line might be a reach here.

 

26) Baltimore Ravens: DE Arik Armstead

The Ravens tend to wait on WRs. Best defender available is always a good bet with them. Armstead is a 3-4 DE commonly compared to Calais Campbell. He’s another raw athlete who can provide needed depth for now and eventually become an impact starter.

 

27) Dallas Cowboys: LB/S Shaq Thompson

A powerful offense masked an average defense. The top pass rushers are off the board. Thompson seems like he would intrigue a team that has struggled at both LB and S. He could play a hybrid role.

 

28) Denver Broncos: DE Eddie Goldman

My understanding is that Wade Phillips has a little bit of an unorthodox 3-4 scheme that would suit the metrics and abilities of Goldman. D-line is also one of the Broncos biggest needs at the moment.

 

29) Indianapolis Colts: OLB Lorenzo Mauldin

Edge rusher is such a need here, and all of their other positions of need are of lower value. Mauldin is going to be a riser up until the draft.

 

30) Green Bay Packers: CB Quinten Rollins

Considering how their season ended, I’d imagine that they’ll want to buff up their defense. CB is also their most valuable position of need. Rollins is considered a blank slate with high upside.

 

31) Seattle Seahawks: WR Jaelen Strong

It’s fair to say that a WR with size is a position of need in Seattle. Strong provides exactly what Seattle needed on the last play of their season: physicality. He would be a red-zone threat.

 

32) New England Patriots: RB Todd Gurley

Another ‘torn ACL’ pick for the Patriots this year. It’s one of their biggest needs. Vereen is likely gone. Gurley has to be considered one of the best talents available at this point.

**See the 2015 NFL Draft and 2015 Dynasty Rookie Draft, like never before with our Moneyball-style scouting reports and rankings. Go to www.collegefootballmetrics.com **

 

 Round 2

  1. Tennessee: OLB Owamagbe Odighizuwa
  2. Tampa Bay: G AJ Cann
  3. Oakland: DT Carl Davis
  4. Jacksonville: TE Devin Funchess
  5. New York Jets: CB Jalen Collins
  6. Washington: CB PJ Williams
  7. Chicago: ILB Denzel Perryman
  8. New York Giants: ILB Bernardrick McKinney
  9. Saint Louis: WR Dorial Green-Beckham
  10. Atlanta: TE Maxx Williams
  11. Cleveland: QB Brett Hundley
  12. New Orleans: RB Jay Ajayi
  13. Minnesota: LB Eric Kendricks
  14. San Francisco: WR Devin Smith
  15. Miami: CB Kevin Johnson
  16. San Diego: RB Duke Johnson
  17. Kansas City: WR Sammie Coates
  18. Buffalo: RT Ty Sambrailo
  19. Houston: CB D’Joun Smith
  20. Philadelphia: S Chris Hackett
  21. Cincinnati: OLB Paul Dawson
  22. Detroit: DT Michael Bennett
  23. Arizona: RB Ameer Abdullah
  24. Pittsburgh: DE Preston Smith
  25. Carolina: LT Donovan Smith
  26. Baltimore: CB/S Eric Rowe
  27. Denver: C Cameron Erving
  28. Dallas: DE Danielle Hunter
  29. Indianapolis: WR Nelson Agholor
  30. Green Bay: TE Clive Walford
  31. Seattle: CB Alex Carter
  32. New England: G Laken Tomlinson

**See the 2015 NFL Draft and 2015 Dynasty Rookie Draft, like never before with our Moneyball-style scouting reports and rankings. Go to www.collegefootballmetrics.com **

 

Round 3

  1. Tampa Bay: DE Nate Orchard
  2. Tennessee: RT Daryl Williams
  3. Jacksonville: ILB Stephone Anthony
  4. Oakland: LT DJ Humphries
  5. Washington: S Ibraheim Campbell
  6. New York Jets: WR Jamison Crowder
  7. Chicago: S Gerod Holliman
  8. Saint Louis: LT Cedric Ogbuehi
  9. Atlanta: RB Tevin Coleman
  10. New York Giants: DE Markus Golden
  11. New Orleans: G Ali Marpet
  12. Minnesota: G Tre Jackson
  13. Cleveland: CB Kevin White
  14. Miami: WR Breshad Perriman
  15. San Francisco: RB TJ Yeldon
  16. Kansas City: S Cody Prewitt
  17. Buffalo: DE Mario Edwards
  18. Houston: OLB Hau’oli Kikaha
  19. San Diego: CB Steven Nelson
  20. Philadelphia: CB Ronald Darby
  21. Cincinnati: WR Rashad Greene
  22. Arizona: CB Jacoby Glenn
  23. Pittsburgh: CB Senquez Golson
  24. Detroit: RT Jake Fisher
  25. Carolina: G Arie Kouandjio
  26. Baltimore: OLB Trey Flowers
  27. Dallas: RB David Cobb
  28. Denver: S Derron Smith
  29. Indianapolis: C Hroniss Grasu
  30. Green Bay: RT Jeremiah Poutasi
  31. Seattle: DT Xavier Cooper
  32. New England: WR Josh Harper
  33. Compensatory: DT Marcus Hardison
  34. Compensatory: RB David Johnson
  35. Compensatory: DT Grady Jarrett
  36. Compensatory: DE Za’Darius Smith

 

R.C. Fischer is an NFL Draft analyst for College Football Metrics.com, and a football projections analyst and writer for Fantasy Football Metrics.com. He is also a lead writer for ‘Play The Draft.com’. His group also provides player projections for Advanced Sports Logic’s football software “The Machine.” See “The Machine” here: The Machine via FFM

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