College Football Metrics

HOME     LOG-IN     SUBSCRIBE     VIEW CART

Monthly Archives: February 2014

NFL Draft 2014 Report: DT Aaron Donald, Pitt and Timmy Jernigan, FSU

NFL Draft 2014: Statistical Analysis of DT Aaron Donald, Pitt 

Well, the world has been turned onto to my mystery defensive “sleeper.” The guy whom I teased was a better draft prospect than Jadeveon Clowney is now a post-NFL Combine darling. The funny thing is that I see everyone cooing over how great Aaron Donald is (now), but are only tepidly moving him up to the late 1st-round (from their previous 2nd-round) on Mock Drafts. I can tell you, again, the mainstream is still wrong with how they are valuing Aaron Donald in their Mock Draft rankings. Read our full scouting report on exactly where Pitt DT prospect Aaron Donald should be valued in the 2014 NFL Draft at College Football Metrics.com

http://www.metricsfootballmedia.com/cfmsubscriber/2014/DL_Donald_Aaron.html

 

NFL Draft 2014: Statistical Analysis of DT Timmy Jernigan, Florida State

I’ll say it if no one else will: Timmy Jernigan as the #1 ranked 4-3 DT in the 2014 NFL Draft is a crime against humanity. Who has committed that crime? Only about 99.9% of the national Mock Drafts you’ve been reading the last few weeks. Jernigan isn’t even 1st-round material; much less a top-10 overall projected draft pick. This is a farce. Read our full scouting report on Florida State DT prospect Timmy Jernigan at College Football Metrics.com, which is a report that’s 50% about Jernigan, and 50% me raging against the machine. 

http://www.metricsfootballmedia.com/cfmsubscriber/2014/DL_Jernigan_Timmy.html

tags — 2014 NFL Draft dynasty rookie Aaron Donald IDP dynasty Timmy Jernigan Dynasty IDP rookie draft 

 

 

How long are we going to throw around the phrase “deepest WR class ever,” and do nothing to adjust to it?

OK, the NFL Drafty thing to say is: “This is the deepest class of WRs I’ve ever seen.” I want to be a contrarian, but I really cannot be here. Deepest ever? That may a bit of a stretch, but it is definitely deep and 1,000 times better than last year. I think we can all agree that this class is deep. We have some different names in our top-5 and top-10 than the mainstream, but in the end we arrive at the same conclusion…there are a lot of nice WR prospects in this class.

OK, so we’re good with “deep.” That being the case—why is almost every draft analyst putting Mock Drafts together with higher valuations on WRs, especially smaller WRs? More specifically: Why are they being so ridiculous with their rankings on one small-WR in particular—Sammy Watkins.

Does anyone have any business sense in the draft analysis game? Perhaps they do, in droves, and they are just playing on the fact that several NFL franchises are the ones with no common business sense? I’ll extend that grace to the draft analysts.

We are all agreeing this WR class is “deep.” Another word for that is “oversupplied.” In the economics of the situation we have “WR inflation.” The government “printing money” is an inflation fear for economists. Well, college football is “printing good-great WR prospects.” Many savvy draft analysts have proposed the theory (for a year or two now) that the switch of grade/high school players over the last decade from playing RB and moving to WR for longevity, style of play, and better NFL payday economics is producing a flood of nifty WR prospects dumping into the system. You think this draft class is loaded with WRs, wait until next year. You think next year’s class is deep? Wait until you see the 2016’s class…and so on.

If you read these WR supply tea leaves properly, then you never would have signed Percy Harvin to his ridiculous contract (he will make $13.4M this year)…you essentially won a Super Bowl without him. If you were seeing this WR market trend, you would have definitely not signed Mike Wallace to an even more ridiculous contract than Harvin (given he isn’t as talented as Harvin)…have fun paying him $17.3M this season Miami fans!

Not that Wallace or Harvin are ‘bad’ players (Harvin can’t be judged as bad because he just doesn’t ever play…), they are definitely ‘good’ NFL WRs. Harvin is a great WR when healthy. However, there is a flood of good-great smaller, speedy WRs hitting the universe. College Football is “printing” small-WR talent. You should overpay for Calvin Johnson, or Andrew Luck, or Jason Peters, or Luke Kuechly, etc. type of once in a blue moon talents. You should not pay top dollar for the NFL’s, suddenly, 2nd most oversupplied commodity…the nifty small-WR.

What is the most oversupplied, high-profile position in the NFL? ‘Good’ RBs…and you have seen how the NFL has adjusted to paying ‘good’ RBs. Free Agent Kickers make more than starter-level talent RBs in the open market.

Small-WRs are hurdling toward becoming more ‘inflated’, economically, then ‘good’ RBs…and I think this year (or next) will be the tipping point where small-WRs in general are more ‘common’ than a garden variety ‘good’ RB. The market should be shifting/adjusting toward ‘good’ RBs being paid about $1-2M a year more than they are now, and small-WRs should be more treated like disposable diapers…like the ‘good’ RBs have been in the past couple of years.

If you agree with any of this WR supply-side economic theory…then why in the world would is a six-foot tall WR who runs a 4.4+ 40-time (like 15-50 other WRs will this year) with a limited vertical leap be the prized WR possession in this draft? So much so that almost every draft analyst has Sammy Watkins as a top-10 overall pick (Today: McShay has #9 to BUF, Kiper #5 to OAK). Some Mock Drafters and high-profile football analysts are adamant that the Rams must use their #2 pick on Watkins. Please, spare me the “great hands,” “competitive nature,” and “route-running” arguments. That is said of almost every high-profile WR prospect. Watkins may possess all of those things, but since this is the deepest draft class of WRs since 1 A.D.—then so must the other top +/- six-foot WRs in this draft…that’s why it is “the deepest.” Why must the Rams pass over all the other great, more economically rare, talented prospects in this draft just to grab Sammy Watkins? How many +/- six-foot, speedy WRs are the Rams going to draft this decade anyway?

If you are an NFL team drafting in the top-10 in a few months, then I assume you are not there because you are a six-foot WR away from a run of Super Bowl titles. Why would a team in despair take a WR like Watkins when there will be a slew of similarly good-great WRs available in the 2nd and 3rd-rounds (and later too). Yes, Buffalo with Stevie Johnson and 2nd-round pick in 2013 Robert Woods…they just need Sammy Watkins to surpass the Patriots for the next decade

If you are a fan of a particular NFL team drafting in the top-10 overall this year, you should riot in the streets if/after they draft Sammy Watkins in the top-10 (or top-20). That pick would show you that there exists no savvy business thought process in the organization’s upper management whatsoever.

We all keep chattering about this deep WR class, but never discuss the ramifications of such a factoid. Sorry to bring it up…now back to more Johnny Manziel talk.

 

 

 

NFL Draft 2014 Report: TE Jace Amaro, Texas Tech and A.C. Leonard, Tennessee St.

NFL Draft 2014: Statistical Analysis of TE Jace Amaro, Texas Tech 

Jace Amaro is almost every scout’s #2 ranked TE prospect for the 2014 NFL Draft. How could you go wrong with a TE who caught 106 passes for 1,352 yards this past season, right? There is more to this story that needs to be debated. Should Jace Amaro be the #1 TE prospect after his NFL Combine performance…or should he not even be among the top-10 TE prospects? Read our full scouting report on Texas Tech TE Jace Amaro at College Football Metrics.com. 

http://www.metricsfootballmedia.com/cfmsubscriber/2014/TE_Amaro_Jace.html

 

NFL Draft 2014: Statistical Analysis of TE A.C. Leonard, Tennessee St. 

A.C. Leonard went from relative unknown to “sleeper” TE prospect after running the fastest 40-yard dash at the 2014 NFL Combine. Is this former Florida Gators prized recruit being undervalued for the 2014 NFL Draft? Read our full scouting report on A.C. Leonard at College Football Metrics.com http://www.metricsfootballmedia.com/cfmsubscriber/2014/TE_Leonard_AC.html

 

tags — 2014 NFL Draft Jace Amaro dynasty rookie draft A.C. Leonard dynasty rookie draft NFL

 

2014 NFL Combine “Winners and Losers” From Tuesday…

OK, last one to “check the box” of the mandated “Winners and Losers” thoughts you must write after the NFL Combine. Here is the review from Tuesday’s activity:

WINNER: CB Justin Gilbert, Oklahoma State

Every list on the planet will have this name; this is obvious. He comes in as the consensus #1 ranked CB, and he solidifies (for now) that spot from the NFL Combine. He ran one of the fastest 40-times with solid agility, and everything else looked fine. I say “winner” here in an obvious sense, but also into the promo sense. 

The NFL Network coverage had its players whom they were locked onto for any number of reasons. Whether they were locked in beforehand (Manziel, Sam, Clowney, Bortles, K. Mack) or they learned to love the prospect on the fly and double-timed it catching with some extra hysteria (A. Donald, McKinnon). There is a benefit to the network “push,” even if subconscious…it changes the board and player’s personal economics.

The NFL Draft coverage is a “Trickle Down” economic theory. It’s a lot of hyperventilation over what 3-4 guys from the top of the mountain “said,” and then everyone else runs with that. Mock Drafts are re-shuffled accordingly with everyone having the same players in a very slightly different order…until one of the ‘elder’s’ shifts, then they all will shift accordingly. Justin Gilbert got that love. Johnny Manziel was the hype winner Friday-Saturday, and Jadeveon Clowney on Sunday-Monday. On a much lesser paid attention to Tuesday coverage, the winners of the media chatter were Clowney and Justin Gilbert.

 

LOSER: CB Lamarcus Joyner, Florida State

Bear with me here, because I will only mention this between 17 and 63 more times in the next two months…

I really resent, and am outraged by the simplistic scouting we are fed in the mainstream coverage. I can only imagine every meeting of the initial NFL Draft ranking by the scouts/analysts begins with the back and forth of:

“OK, guys who do we think are the best prospects at each position?”

“That’s tough, because we have no idea what we are looking at accept who made what All-Star teams and whatever cool highlights we have/remember. Hey, remember when Jadeveon Clowney knocked the helmet off that guy? That was cool.” How about when Manziel jumped into the pile and bounced off, and then threw a TD? I can’t wait for him to do that again in the NFL 4 to 18 more times. He should run that play every time!”

“Whoa, guys. We have to rank every position, not just the QBs. We need to get this list out quick or the bosses will be upset. What should we do?”

“Well, let’s do what we always do. First, we have to identify all the players going into the draft from the two teams that participated in the National Championship game. Remember, they are always 1-3 level of graings better than anyone should think. Therefore, Florida State guys must be #1-2 because they won the title. Furthermore, guys another quick tip: What do you do if there is not an FSU or Auburn player at that position?

“I don’t know? Tell us!”

“Guys, we do what we always do. Favor the prospects from 1 or 2 prestigious schools above all else.”

“OK, like USC and Texas?”

“NO! That was like 7 years ago. Update your notes! It is Alabama players, then LSU players.”

“What do we do if there is no FSU, Auburn, Alabama, or LSU prospect available?”

“Write this down rookie: When everything else craps out, go with a Notre Dame prospect.”

End scene.

Lamarcus Joyner has no business as a top-3 CB from the sheer fact that he was barely 5’8” tall. That doesn’t mean he cannot play in the league. It just means it is an embarrassment that he is a Mock 1st-round prospect. He won’t be anymore…well, he shouldn’t be anymore. A slow 40-time, a poor agility reading, and his small size…he shouldn’t be drafted. However, he’ll go 1st or 2nd-round for sure, because the NFL follows the main draft website’s rankings. It’s an affront to the other smaller school prospects who are biased against in this process…it costs them money when they don’t get the hype they deserve.

 

WINNER: CB Keith McGill, Utah

In the era of “me too” football, we all know every CB situation will be compared to the Seattle Seahawks. The media craves any big CB prospect to compare them to Richard Sherman. Simple size comparisons are their “go to” move, like comparing Blake Bortles to Ben Roethlisberger just because Bortles is “big; NFL-sized.”

Keith McGill is a 6’3”+, 211-pound Safety/CB prospect that ran a 4.51 with mediocre agility and great everything else: massive hand-size, very long arms, big vertical, great broad jump. He wins the Richard Sherman 2.0 sweepstakes. He may be a late 2nd or early 3rd-round Mock Draft now, but he will be an actual 1st-rounder by Draft Day.

 

LOSER: CB Loucheiz Purifoy, Florida

No matter how much the NFL Network analysts and special guest Joe Haden (from Florida) were rooting for him…his 4.6+ 40-time with a bench press of 6 reps sinks his late 1st or 2nd-round draft status…or it should. 

 

WINNER: SS Deone Buchannon, Washington State

He’s the best Safety in this draft, and we haven’t loaded all the data in our system to verify it yet, but I bet he is our #1. I first noticed him at the Senior Bowl week. I loved his college output when I snuck a peek at it, and now he confirms all that with his workout data…which was superior to Ha Ha Clinton-Dix in every category. There is no one in their right mind that could watch either of them play and study their workout numbers, and not have Buchannon as their top Safety.

Oops, I’m sorry. I didn’t catch it at first. Ha Ha went to Alabama, so that trumps all the other scouting data. My bad.

 

LOSER: FS Ha Ha Clinton-Dixon, Alabama

He’s not really a loser, per se, but he should be. However, the NFL Network guys were semi-relentless in saying the phrase “checked all the boxes” when it was convenient for them. That is code for “We pre-love this guy (likely because he went to FSU, Auburn, Alabama, LSU or Notre Dame), and he didn’t do anything terrible at the NFL Combine, so ipso-facto we were right about our scouting.

They are wrong on Clinton-Dixon. It’s not that he isn’t a good prospect, etc. He’s just not one of the best 1-2-3 Safeties in the draft. He’ll still go in the 1st-round, and maybe as the top Safety taken, but he shouldn’t. Not after this workout: A 4.5+ runner with mediocre agility, a poor bench press, and a weak vertical. If he went to Vanderbilt, he’d be a 3rd-5th round pick. He went to Alabama, so #1 here we come!

WINNER: SS Daniel Sorensen, BYU

He’s not a perfect Safety prospect, but he showed off amazing agility in the drills. He goes from “has a shot to be drafted,” to “should be seriously looked at by an NFL team.” He’s got size (6’1”+, 205) and OK (not great) speed for a Safety, but his agility has to make you stop and pause.

 

Of course, there are other “Winners and Losers” to discuss, and we will break them all down at College Football Metrics.com over the next 2+ months. Join us of the ride! See the NFL Draft from a perspective that will have you throwing stuff at your TV. You’ll never enjoy the NFL Draft more than with a subscription to College Football Metrics. 

Tags — NFL Draft 2014 Dynasty Rookie Draft 2014

 

2014 NFL Combine “Winners and Losers” from Monday…

Again, I am under federal mandate to write this recap after each Combine day, so here you go… 

There are other players who impressed, and didn’t, on Monday…and we’ll break all of them down over the next couple weeks on College Football Metrics.com. For now, here is a quick reaction on a couple players from Monday:

 

LOSER: DE Jadeveon Clowney, South Carolina

He needed to be super human at the NFL Combine to have a shot at being the #1 overall pick. He did very well, but he didn’t become Superman. His 40-time (4.53) is terrific, but not completely off-the-charts as they a hyping (and not the freakish low 4.4s hinted at). His agility measurement was just ‘good’. His bench press was below-average. His broad jump and vertical were excellent. As other DEs started to impress athletically like Jackson Jeffcoat (Texas) and Larry Webster (Bloomsburg), it brings into focus that Clowney is a tremendous athletic specimen…and so are some others.

Clowney is a 1st-round talent. He is probably a top-10 overall talent. He may be the best player in the draft, but it’s not ‘hands-down’ anymore. If you really look at his Combine results in context, he went from a “mythical creature” that is once in a lifetime talent to ‘just’ an excellent athlete. Once you throw in the ‘effort’ concerns, you start thinking you might have another Mario Williams on your hands—all athlete, limited worker.

I just heard NFL Network proclaim Jadeveon Clowney’s 40-time (4.53) as “mind-blowing.” Man, who has ever heard of a DE prospect running a 4.53 40-time…that’s crazy? You have to go all the way back eons ago to 2013 when Dion Jordan ran 4.54, Cornelius Washington went 4.55, Ezekiel Ansah had 4.56, and Barkevious Mingo with 4.58.

Jadeveon, much like Johnny Manziel, is being ‘pushed’ on us for the TV Show they are creating. There is no perspective, there is no criticism…it is all uber-grandiosity of words used to describe everything they do. It’s a political campaign, wrapped in a TV Show promo, injected into the NFL Draft.

 

WINNER: DE Larry Webster, Bloomsburg

He went from near complete unknown to intriguing. Webster did not blow up Pennsylvania State Athletic Conference (PSAC); he was good, but not what you would expect from an NFL-level athlete in a low D2 application. He is on the NFL draft map more seriously now.

 

LOSER: LB Michael Sam, Missouri

His Combine workout was a complete disaster. Separate away from the media attention he has garnered, and just look at the workout—it was arguably the worst workout of the day.

Sam is very small as a DE prospect, so he needs to have mega speed-agility to be taken seriously, but (for his size) he tested super-slow with terrible agility. He was so slow that he doesn’t make much sense as an OLB much either.

There are two positives that Sam can hang his hat on: (1) He was under ridiculous media pressure, so he may show better at his Pro-Day. (2) Jarvis Jones was an SEC defensive monster entering the draft last year, and he bombed his NFL Combine, but his on-field numbers were too good to overlook…and he was drafted 1st-round. Sam won’t be 1st-round, but he’s still draftable if his Pro Day is a little better.

 

WINNER: LB Kevin Pierre-Louis, Boston College

He ran a Combine best, among LBs, 4.51 40-yard dash. He also put up stellar agility numbers along with a big bench press (28 reps) and a big vertical (39”). Based on the Combine, he should go from also-ran to mid-round pick at least.

 

LOSER: LB Khalil Mack, Buffalo

The Mike Mayock/NFL Network pre-hype of Khalil Mack as potentially the best overall prospect in the draft, and the player Mayock would take #1…well, he didn’t do anything to stand out athletically. You have a “B” level on-field producer and a “B” athlete…and you get a “B” prospect. Not the #1 overall player in the draft. It’s silly, but the Combine coverage/scouts/analysts have been mostly wrong all four days on their top players. They are over-hyping some players too much, and have totally missed on others. What exactly are they seeing, and missing, to be so far off when they watch guys on tape anyway?

 

WINNER: LB Jordan Tripp, Montana

Jordan Tripp absolutely blew away the agility drills at the Combine and had a 40-time right with Anthony Barr and Khalil Mack. Tripp has an excellent profile as a 3-4 OLB…and could be a sneaky blitzing, rush-end on occasion with his 6’2”+, 234-pound frame (if he adds another 10 pounds of bulk).

 

LOSER: The end of the Draft Day movie commercial running every other segment

Please join me in this, and even better if you have a DVR to go back and review as many times as needed. I have already mocked this commercial in yesterday’s “Winners and Losers,” but I need to add one more thing: At the very end, Cosner announces, “I love this job,” and then swings around to give a ‘high five’. Two things: (1) Grown humans, please stop high-fiving…and add the fist bump to that ban as well. (2) Look at the face of the guy receiving said ‘high-five’ from Cosner. No one above 10-years old should be that happy to get a ‘high-five’.

 

WINNER: DE Chris Smith, Arkansas

The ‘winner’ is his biceps. No one has crafted ‘guns’ like Chris Smith. His overall workout was pretty good, but his upper body shamed me as a fellow human. 

** See more of our football analysis at www.fantasyfootballmetrics.com **

 

2014 NFL Combine Tuesday 2/25/14 Notes…(Streaming all day)

Refresh this page for the latest streaming notes from Saturday @ the NFL Combine…

** See more of our football analysis at www.fantasyfootballmetrics.com **

 2014 NFL Draft

 

– Top Br Jump DB: 11’1 Pierre Desir, Lindenwood, 10’9 Terr. Mitchell, Ore., 10’8 Kyle Fuller, Va Tech + J.Bennett, Notre Dame + S.Jean-Baptiste, Nebr. + J.Verrett, TCU

– Top DB Verticals: 41.5″ Stanley Jean-Baptiste, Nebr., 40.5″ Bene Benwikere, San Jose St., 39″ Keith McGill, Utah, 39″ Jason Verrett, TCU

– OFFICIAL fastest 40-yd among DBs: 4.37 Justin Gilbert, Okl St,  4.38 Phillip Gaines, Rice  4.38 Jason Verrett TCU, 4.30 Bradley Roby, OSU

– CB Bradley Roby, Ohio State hits (un) 4.40 40-yard, fastest of Group-Two DBs so far

– CB Keith McGill, Utah is going to keep slicing up the draft board: 6’3.4, 211-pds with long arms, huge hands…and now an (un) 4.47 40-time on 1st att.

– Of the Group-One DBs, Justin Gilbert, Oklahoma State is getting most of the NFL Network uber-hype, and it looks mostly deserved. Still, they go over the top with some guys so much it is aggravating. Group-Two is up soon.

– NFL Combine “Winners and Losers” from Monday just posted on College Football Metrics home page

– CB Antone Exum, Va. Tech is an impressive physical build, and has run 4.50 and 4.51 unofficially today. 

– CB Phillip Gaines, Rice 4.34 is the first CB to break 4.4 unofficially. Then, Justin Gilbert, OKl St. posted a 4.35 (un) next run.

– I really like SS Deone Buchanon, Washington St. since seeing him in Mobile. He had a solid 19 reps on the bench, and ran an (un) 4.50 on 1st try. 

– I just heard NFL Network proclaim Jadeveon Clowney’s 40-time (4.53) called “mind-blowing.” Man, who has ever heard of a DE prospect running a 4.53 40-time…that’s crazy? You have to go all the way back eons ago to 2013 when Dion Jordan ran 4.54, Cornelius Washington went 4.55, Ezekiel Ansah had 4.56, and Barkevious Mingo with 4.58.

– CB Brock Vereen, Minnesota wins the bench press among DBs with 25 reps. His brother Shane (Patriots RB) was the top bencher among RBs in his draft class with an amazing (for a RB his size) 31 reps. 

– Best Three Cone Drill LBs: 6.64 Tyler Starr, So. Dakota,  6.78 Trent Murphy, Stanford,  6.82 Anthony Barr, UCLA  6.89 Jordan Tripp, Montana

 

 

 

NFL Draft ’14 Reports: WR Jordan Matthews, Vandy and Mike Evans, Texas A&M

NFL Draft 2014: Statistical Analysis of WR Jordan Matthews, Vanderbilt 

There was an advantage to going to the Senior Bowl practice week this year. The opportunity to see Jordan Matthews up close and personal, and observing his behind the scenes work. I loved what I saw in Mobile, and our computer scouting models are picking up positively on Matthews as well. It’s official; we’re all big fans of Jordan Matthews. How highly do we rate Jordan Matthews in this WR class? The answer may surprise you. See our full scouting report on WR Jordan Matthews, Vanderbilt at College Football Metrics.com

http://www.metricsfootballmedia.com/cfmsubscriber/2014/WRb_Matthews_Jordan.html

 

NFL Draft 2014: Statistical Analysis of WR Mike Evans, Texas A&M 

Mike Evans is a top-3 rated WR in the 2014 NFL Draft class for every person in the known scouting service universe. There is a lot to love here with Evans, but we see some reason for pause. Once you read our report, I think you might also begin to scratch your head a little; like we did. Read why we are a little perplexed with the Mike Evans scouting data and his performance metrics in our full scouting report on College Football Metrics.com 

http://www.metricsfootballmedia.com/cfmsubscriber/2014/WRb_Evans_Mike.html

 tags — NFL Draft Jordan Matthews dynasty Mike Evans rookie draft dynasty

 

 

 

 

The ‘Winners’ and ‘Losers’ from the NFL Combine Weekend…

When covering an event like the NFL Combine, there is a federal mandate that one must do a “Winners and Losers” article/recap. Also acceptable is “Stock Up and Stock Down.” One thing that is different about ours: Several takes fly 180 degrees opposite of the similar mainstream articles about this weekend. Enjoy…

Twitter @CFBMetrics

 

LOSER: NFL Draft scouts and pundits using their eyeballs, and those in the media that just echo whatever those ‘other’ people said.

The biggest stories that the media tried to shove down our throat kinda blew up in the mainstream’s faces this weekend…except for the Offensive Tackles. Johnny Manziel ran with a much slower 40-time runner than expected. Blake Bortles was a near disaster 40-time. Sammy Watkins was not the ‘track star’ we were sold. Eric Ebron is not the next Vernon Davis. Ka’Deem Carey ran a 4.70 40-time as icing on a ___-sandwich they ate this weekend.

Besides most of the mainstream’s top QBs, RBs, WRs, and TE prospects running much slower and measuring much more disappointing than they had proclaimed/hyped…it was a pretty good job of pre-scouting (sarcasm). Perhaps, they’ll make it up on the defensive side (sarcasm).  

 

LOSER:  RB Ka’Deem Casey, Arizona

A 5’9”, 207-pound RB prospect should have been a bit of a red-flag from the get-go…as far as the mainstream pushing him as the #1-#2 RB prospect in this class. He then runs an official 4.70 40-time at the Combine…which is death in this day and age of prospect’s ultra-serious and improved draft-prep. I have dibs on slapping the first person who says, “Terrell Davis” when mentioning how dreadfully slow Casey measured.

 

WINNER:  RB Jerick McKinnon, Georgia Southern

As mentioned above, a 5’9, 208-pound RB prospect is already a size-based red-flag, but when they go to the Combine and out-bench press all the other RB prospects…now you have something to look at. Add to that a 4.41 40-time, a near best in class vertical and broad jump…and tying the guy who ran a 4.26 (Dri Archer) in the 10-yard split—now you have a serious, smaller RB prospect. He was everything people thought of Casey…and much more.

I love that McKinnon’s incredible NFL Combine showing only drew a “Wow, he’s worked his way into getting drafted.” Whereas Combine results ‘don’t matter’ on Casey…he’s still a 2nd-round projection for everyone. In a real business, people would be fired over this type of nonsense. In NFL/TV draft coverage, we just roll with it…and make movies about it.

 

LOSER: The movie trailer for Draft Day with Kevin Cosner

I will be one of the first to see Draft Day two weeks or so after its release when the theaters clear out on it. You know I would think the concept is intriguing, and I really like Kevin Cosner the human from listening to him being interviewed on the press junkets for the movie. I hope that I love this movie. I just don’t need to see the trailer for the movie 1,100 times during the Combine coverage.

It seems too off-putting when Cosner wants to “talk football” with Jennifer Garner. I wish they would have used lesser-known stars, and/or used no-name actors. I have a feeling this movie will be semi-cringe worthy, clunky/forced football-talk like watching Al Pacino pretend to be a football coach, or Cameron Diaz as a faux owner.

My other concern: How melodramatic can you really make this movie’s premise? A moment from the trailer: The following is screamed with incredulity, “You are trading the #6 pick?” Cosner’s character laughs it off as if he is some crazed, cool maverick. Wow, that scene seems uber-tense! I really wonder what’s going to happen? Does he trade the pick…or does he not? If I watch that movie, and he is trading the #6 pick to drop three spots in the draft, I’m going to set fire to my $13 small popcorn? Because movie theater food is pricey…get it?

 

WINNERTE Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Wasington

By not being able to participate in most drills, and then watching the entire TE class go up in flames…by proxy ASJ’s value is elevated. See a longer explanation/article about this on our College Football Metrics home page.

 

LOSER: QB Johnny Manziel, Texas A&M

Johnny Manziel was supposed to be 6’0” and run a 4.5s 40-time. He was just shy of six-foot, and he ran a surprisingly slow 4.68 40-time. Consider this is the same Johnny Manziel that has been prepping for this specific run/drill for a month straight. He had the nice agility numbers as expected. This just wasn’t a ‘wow’ factor workout.

He has the speed/size/agility of an OK-ish punt returner in the NFL. If he were a RB, WR, CB, or Safety prospect…he’d go undrafted. He’s not even Russell Wilson (who ran 4.53 and a better vertical and broad jump). Manziel should have had a large shadow cast over his #1 prospectus; just on the athleticism questions. However, the media is too busy panting over how well he handled (conned) his press conference. If you missed that presser, I think NFL Network will run it on a loop for the month of March. 

 

** See more of our football analysis at www.fantasyfootballmetrics.com **

 

WINNER: QB Connor Shaw, South Carolina

As far as the NFL Network is concerned, only Manziel and Bortles exist as QBs for this draft. They also are only about 78% sure Teddy Bridgewater is in this draft. After that, no QB got a push. All Connor Shaw did is go out and run a faster 40-time than Manziel, and is a similar, slightly bigger/stronger physical size to him…and arguably had a superior year as a passer as well. Johnny Manziel wishes he had the character of Connor Shaw. That story doesn’t fit the media hype-train template on Manziel, so Shaw is swept under the rug, and the comparison is not seriously evaluated/considered.

If Manziel is a top QB prospect/#1 pick, then Connor Shaw should be a 2nd or 3rd-rounder. Go back and look at Shaw’s numbers from 2013 in the SEC. How is he not taken more seriously? Better yet, go look at our College Football Metrics scouting report on Shaw (who we have rated across the board right about the same as we have Manziel).

 

LOSER: QB Blake Bortles, Central Florida

He ran a 4.93 40-time, seriously? This is your awesome, sneaky mobile QB? The Andrew Luck comparison the draft gurus tried to make just went flying out the door on that 40-time. Now they are trying to shove Ben Roethlisberger comps down are throat…because all their ridiculous scouting has left is to say, “He’s a big one.” Great. Go look at Roethlisberger’s college numbers as a passer and compare to Bortles…it isn’t even close. If “big” is now the cornerstone of QB attributes, then let’s sign Jared Lorenzen as his backup.

 

WINNER: QB Derek Carr, Fresno State

I was not a huge Derek Carr fan, but I am warming up to the fact that he has all the characteristics people were looking for in Bortles. Carr is faster/quicker on his feet then Bortles; shockingly so at the NFL Combine. So much so, I have to re-look at our athletic evaluations and metrics on our scouting models of him.

Carr has a much better arm and feel for playing QB than Bortles…by far. If you want a developmental QB (i.e. one not ready day-one) who could go onto become a franchise QB…maybe it is Derek Carr. At least, I’d gamble on him ahead of Bortles.

 

LOSER: WR Sammy Watkins, Clemson

I don’t care how many articles start off with how “Watkins was a beast” at the NFL Combine; it simply wasn’t true. There are a million 6’0”+ WRs who run a 4.4+ 40-time with solid agility and mediocre vertical. We were sold that Sammy Watkins was some WR from another planet…a planet where they all run 4.2 40-times. He simply is not that physically ‘special’…not the way he was sold to us. The NFL team that takes him in the first-round is reaching.

It’s not that Watkins isn’t going to be good or great…he’s just not the transcendent kind of WR being sold. You want him on your team, but you don’t want to use a top-10 pick for this. There are much better WR prospects in this draft…and that’s not a slap at Watkins, per se.

If this is the deepest draft at WR in recorded history, then why would you reach for Sammy Watkins? Why is no one asking that question on TV or in print? Remember, last year, when I (and a few others) said there is a flood of WR talent coming to college and thus the NFL due to a shift in young people moving from RB to WR in high school…and that had to affect how highly you drafted, lusted after, or paid a WR in free agency? Well, go get your umbrella…it’s starting to rain.

 

WINNER: WR Brandin Cooks, Oregon State

If you want to get excited about a smaller WR, then here you go. Cooks ran a 4.33 40-time with sensational agility, and a similar bench and better vertical than Watkins. He gives up three inches and 22-pounds to Watkins, but the way a team would use Cooks is different than how they use Watkins.

 

LOSER: WR Marqise Lee, USC

Remember when everyone penciled him in as the best player in college football and future #1 pick two years ago? Lee’s stock is falling even faster after a 4.52 40-time at the Combine, and good, not awesome overall athleticism. He is a good football player and a starting NFL WR, but he’s not the all-world guy everyone sold us that he was two years ago…and these same folks are now telling you Sammy Watkins is the greatest WR prospect ever.

 

WINNER: QB Jimmy Garoppolo, Eastern Illinois

Garoppolo measured as one of the more nimble/agile QBs at the Combine. Not straight-line fast, but that’s not his game. Moving around in the pocket, he tested well. Garoppolo going in the top-10 overall is going to shock everyone (as of today), it won’t in a few weeks/months, but put me down that I said it last month, and this month again.

 

LOSER: WR Jarvis Landry, LSU

A WR who I was really interest in watching perform fell completely flat—a 4.65 40-time, 12 bench reps, a nightmare vertical (28”). He came up injured during his 40-run, but a lot of the prospect damage was already done. He may fall out of the draft with this workout. The overview looks like he wasn’t prepared for this workout…and that may be unfair, he may just have been hurt.

 

WINNER: WR Odell Beckham, LSU

Physically, about as good as it gets for a +/- 200-pound WR. Had he benched more (only 7 reps) he would have been an even larger winner.

 

LOSER: Michael Sam’s button at his press conference

In the spirit of treating everyone equally (and I am serious about that, I am making a point here), I am going to zing Micheal Sam and the media. The fact that I am semi-sqeamish to quip about this shows just how pathetic our free speech has been brow beaten away. I should be able to make fun of Sam or Kevin Cosner equally…as long as it is not scary ‘hate’. I am being biased if I don’t make fun of Sam equally.

Am I the only one that found it ironic that the big Michael Sam quote from his press conference of “I want to be known as the football player, not as the gay football player” was said while he had a rainbow button pinned to his Combine lanyard? I agree with his statement, but I’m just asking why display the pin/button if you are trying to move away from being labeled? That would be like Johnny Manziel complaining that the media makes too much of his party boy image while he has a nightclub stamp from the night before still showing on the top of his hand.

Sam’s allowed to be proud, but he cannot have it both ways…just like if Tim Tebow wore a big crucifix to a press conference, but then Tebow complained two-seconds later that he wishes the media would not see him as a football player and not as a big-time Christian football player. I get where Sam was going, but during job interviews you try to stay as vanilla and non-controversial as possible, typically…don’t you? There is no template for this kind of media storm, so who knows…it could just be me.

If someone in the mainstream media had raised that Sam-button question (and maybe they did, I just didn’t see it) they would have been burned at the stake soon after…so I’m guessing no one major said it. So this may be my last posting ever, if so—then enjoy the Combine events Monday and Tuesday! We’ll have a PayPal donation button set up for my bail and defense team. 

tags — NFL draft Ka’Deem Casey dynasty rookie draft Jerick McKinnon dynasty Jimmy Garoppolo sleeper Austin Seferian-Jenkins dynasty Odell Beckham sleeper Connor Shaw dynasty Brandin Cooks

 

2014 NFL Combine Monday 2/24/14 Notes…(Streaming all day)

Refresh this page for the latest streaming notes from Saturday @ the NFL Combine…

** See more of our football analysis at www.fantasyfootballmetrics.com **

 2014 NFL Draft

 

 

– Top Three-Cone Drills DL: 6.83 Kony Ealy, Auburn, 6.97 Jackson Jeffcoat, Texas, 7.08 Cassius Marsh, UCLA, 7.11 Aaron Donald, Pittsburgh

– DT Aaron Donald, Pittsburgh just got the full blessing of Mike Mayock. Darn. I wanted to be the first to break that news. His Combine data was just too crazy for the mainstream to keep ignoring him (which makes me wonder what they didn’t see on tape already?).

A couple days ago, I teased that we saw a defensive player that our system thought was better than Jadeveon Clowney…it was Aaron Donald. The computer data was seeing it, and my eyes were blown away with the tape…and I say that as someone who hates most tape of players.

At the time that I teased this mystery defensive player, Donald was not in any 1st-round Mock Draft from national pundits. I couldn’t wait to drop this info. Well, now I have to drop it now because the world will be in love with him tomorrow. 

We have to get the Combine numbers loaded into the system to verify, and see how high we are, but I am thinking he is arguably the best single player in the 2014 NFL Draft. We’ll see how highly he ranks in our system and report it out on our College Football Metrics’ scouting reports.

– Top DL Verticals: 40.5″ Daquan Howard, Penn State, 37.5″ Jadeveon Clowney, 37″ So Car., Jadon Gayle, Va Tech, 37″ Chris Smith, Arkansas

– LB Kevin Pierre-Louis, Boston College followed his first (unofficial) 40-yard of 4.44 with a 4.41 on 2nd try

– Best LB 40-yard (4.44) and 10-yard runs (1.53) on 1st try, unofficial is Kevin Pierre-Louis, Boston College

– LB Kalil Mack, Buffalo 1st-try (unofficial) 40-yard: 4.66 with a 1.56 10-yard split 

– LB Anthony Barr 1st-try 40-time: 4.66. LB Chris Borland, Wisconsin 40-yard (unoff.) 1st-try = 4.83 with 1.62 10-yd split

Michael Sam, Missouri OFFICIAL 40-time: 4.91…not great for his draft stock

– Top OFFICIAL 40-yard dash DLs: 4.53 = Clowney, SC, 4.58 Larry Webster, Bloomsburg, 4.60 Howard Jones, Shepherd, 4.63 Jackson Jeffcoat, Texas

– Top Three Cone Drill RBs: 6.75 Bishop Sankey, Wash., 6.78 Tyler Gaffney, Stanford, 6.83 Jerick McKinnon, Ga. So., 6.86 Dri Archer, Kent St.

– Jadeveon Clowney OFFICIAL 40-yard dash: 4.53…not the 4.4s

– People are going bonkers for Clowney, but 6’5.6″, 252-pds Larry Webster from Bloomsburg just posted a (un) 4.60 40-time with Clowney-like 1.57 10-yd split

– DE/OLB Chris Smith, Arkansas went 4.69 (un) on his 2nd 40-yard, he was 4.54 on his 1st. He is probably a 4.6 +/- official. He also looks like the incredible hulk in his biceps.

Michael Sam 2nd-try on (unofficial) 40-yard dash: 4.84 (4.79 1st try) with a 1.75 split

– DE Chris Smith, Arkansas just ran a unofficial 4.54 40-time with a 1.59 split…on par with Clowney (and he’s about the same weight), and no one cared…

– DE/OLB Michael Sam, Missouri 1st try on 40-time (un): 4.79 w 1.72 10-yd split, which is OK/solid

– DT Aaron Donald, Pittsbugh is getting the love he is due, to some degree, on the NFL Network. He should be moving more and more as a 1st-round prospect now in any Mock Draft. He is a ‘winner’ from today.

– Louis Nix, Notre Dame (un) 40-time on 1st-try: 5.35 with a 1.85 10-yard split 

Jadeveon Clowney 37.5″ Vertical leap

– 2014 NFL Combine Weekend “Winners and Losers” article now posted at our blog

Howard Jones out of Shepherd, a smaller DE at 6’2″+, 235-pounds has run (un) 4.60 and 4.57…only Clowney has been faster

– The Kony Ealy hype hasn’t lived up to the billing at the Combine. He has run 40-times at 4.84 2x (unofficial) with decent 10-yard splits. Several big DE prospects are running (unofficial) faster 40-times today.

 Jadeveon Clowney 2nd-run 40-time, unofficial: 4.48 with a 1.59 split

– DE Jadon Gayle, Va Tech: 4.65 40-time (un) with 1.60 split at 259-pounds.

– One of the stories of the day should be DT Aaron Donald with a unofficial 4.65 40-time and 1.59 split at 285-pounds. He will unfairly get lost among the Clowney activity. 

Jadeveon Clowney 40-time, unofficial, 1st try: 4.47 with a 1.56 10-yard split. I would guess that becomes a 4.50, but 4.4s could hold.

– I thought it was ridiculous when Manziel’s QB-guru George Whitfield had a 1/4 inch prop created to mock that Manziel measured under six-foot tall…seconds after it was revealed that Manziel was under six-foot tall. I don’t think it matters in Manziel’s assessment…short is short, and whatever you feel about that is what it is. However, Whitfield is so pushing Manziel like a boxing promoter, or WWE mouthpiece ‘manager’ that it makes me feel violated every time he speaks. I thought it was so obvious that no right-minded person would fall for it.

Cut to: I am watching pre-Combine coverage this morning, and there are the paid analysts conveniently holding up the same exact prop to help push the Manziel story. The question was: “Should people be concerned about Manziel’s height”…and boom, prop delivered. What was not asked…”Was his slower 40-time a shock?” Nope, no one can ask a real question…it would break the Manziel TV show character being crafted.

– The height of draft insanity (as seen this am): If I were a paid network analyst, I would never admit that I was downgrading Teddy Bridgewater because I didn’t see him run or throw at the Combine. What kind of scouting is that? So watching a dude throw all of 11-17 scripted route passes with no pass rush is your full determination on what you think about a QB? You did no other prep work? Sadly, this is how much of the actual NFL teams operate the draft as well. You wonder why the draft makes no sense, and why there are so many misses…ta-da!

 — Our “Winners & Losers” article from Combine weekend will post some time today, and I will alert when it does here. 

 

 

 

 

How Austin Seferian-Jenkins Might Be a ‘Winner’ Missing the Saturday NFL Combine…

It’s quite simple how Austin Seferian-Jenkins could be a ‘winner” despite missing the speed drills Saturday…

This deepest, most awesome TE class…as we were being sold by Mike Mayock…is turning into garbage. I use Mike Mayock not to target him, but to express how the NFL Draft game of “telephone” works. Mayock is the known authority in the Combine coverage–the most camera time and most words delivered. Whatever he says usually becomes a mainstream echo chamber.

Prior to the TE timed running activity, Mayock was raving how deep this TE class was…and how Eric Ebron was Vernon Davis-ish. He raved about the overall group. Before Saturday: Ebron was the consensus #1 ranked TE for almost everyone, and Texas Tech’s Jace Amaro was a consensus #2, with Seferian-Jenkins #3 (sometimes #2)…some had Notre Dame’s Troy Niklas in that top-3 with Seferian-Jenkins out of it. A few got cute with C.J. Fiedorowicz in the top-3, but he is in most everyone’s top-5.

Well, great job national scouting everyone, because at the NFL Combine all these top-name TE prospects quickly proved they weren’t on a physical/athletic level to be impact NFLTEs. You know it’s true, because Mike Mayock was backpedaling like a cover CB at the end. During the wrap up, Rich Eisen flips to Mayock with a “I know you love this TE class and how deep it is.” Mayock quickly switched gears and was like (my words), “Well, ummm, not so much deep per se…Eric Ebron I thought, but…and Amaro was, errrr. It’s a pretty good class, but I wouldn’t say deep. More like deep-ish, kinda-sorta…Hey, look is the Johnny Manziel?”

Let me just summarize the flow here:

1) All the highly compensated and nationally worshiped scouts of the world told you how great, and how deep, the 2014 TE class was. They had to spend hours and hours studying tape to come up with this conclusion (mostly sarcasm there). In about 30 minutes of stopwatch activity on Saturday their awesome TE class they “saw” was all blown to hell. It was so bad/lackluster, even they had to kinda-sorta admit it…and they slowly started backing away from their statements.

I ask some of you rhetorically, Will you ever hold these folks accountable? Will they hold themselves accountable? How could they spend so much time watching tape and telling you about players…and in 30 minutes in Indy be completely wrong?

But the NFL Combine doesn’t matter…

It’s the mainstream scouts who shouldn’t matter. However, the world will follow them (off a cliff). More sadly, so will NFL teams. I am convinced half of the league, or more, drafts using ESPN’s or NFL’s or CBS’s free, public draft rankings. The people who botched the TE class in January/February…will be back at again Monday with their new re-shuffle of their deck.

Bottom line…this TE class is not good.

2) Austin Serefian-Jenkins might have really helped his stock had he performed Saturday, by blowing them all away. However, he is listed by most draft pundits as an NFL Combine ‘loser’ because he missed out on participating. I get that, but this TE class has now been revealed as marginal with no superstars…a top prospect (like ASJ) just standing still may have helped his draft status as the others plummet past him. Seferian-Jenkins may be the best TE prospect by now by process of elimination. He may be the best TE prospect because of ‘hope’…as he’s now about the only hope at something special.

Seferian-Jenkins has a foot fracture, and if he works out officially it will be in April most likely, he now has a chance to sit idly as the #3-5 ranked TE for a few weeks, and then make a late charge to #1 (assuming quality workouts) by D-Day. That’s one path.

He may also just sit on his college tape, and not workout. His tape that in 2012 had people calling him the next Jimmy Graham. Seferian-Jenkins tape may be intriguing enough on its own to launch him past Ebron and Amaro after their less than stellar NFL Combine performances.

I doubt that the tape alone will do it. The national draft pundits will not freely admit an error unless Kiper-McShay-Mayock ordain it first…like they barely did on Zach Ertz last year. Ertz was the #1 TE pre-Combine, then he flopped (athletically) at the Combine…and the national draft media all dropped him to #2 in unison…and he stayed there.

It will probably take a good-great workout late in the process to launch Seferian-Jenkins to the #1 TE spot.

I don’t think Seferian-Jenkins has lost much NFL Draft ground this weekend…he may have gained by watching others fall. It will be reported as him ‘losing’, and we’ll all pout because we didn’t get to see his 40-time, etc., but in a rare instance missing the running at the NFL Combine doesn’t hurt him much draft stock-wise…because the rest of the class was such a flop. The intrigue that he might be the best TE, the only high-end TE hope possibly, could begin to build in the media over the next few weeks as people have time to dwell upon it.

tags — NFL Draft Austin Seferian-Jenkins dynasty rookie draft Jace Amaro draft Eric Ebron dynasty rookie draft

** See more of our football analysis at www.fantasyfootballmetrics.com **

 

College Football Metrics

HOME       CONTACT US